Faced with soaring costs that rippled across economies, governments around the world embraced the critical need for energy security in 2023, adopting a more pragmatic approach to achieving climate goals. 

The world used more crude oil and coal in 2023 than anytime in human history, while global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) continued to grow as a vital fuel source, primarily in Europe and Asia. 

Europe in particular stepped back from some of its more aggressive timelines for reducing its reliance on oil and gas, with some nations striking long-term supply deals for LNG, returning to burning coal, or renewing investment in oil and gas exploration. 

Economic powerhouses China and India increasingly turned to coal to power their developing economies, spurring global growth of the most emissions-intensive fuel, while the U.S. maintained its lead as the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, setting new high water marks for both. 

Canada, meanwhile, saw steady progress on some key energy projects, completing construction of the Coastal GasLink pipeline, achieving major milestones on the LNG Canda export terminal, seeing the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion near completion, and the approval of a new major oil sands project for the first time in five years. 

The following is a recap of some of the key events from 2023, outlining how oil and gas have once again taken centre stage in the aftermath of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and the global energy crisis that it made worse: 

January 

• Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visits Canada to make a personal appeal for more access to LNG. Like German Chancellor Olaf Scholz just five months earlier, Kishida is essentially rebuffed by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. 
• The International Energy Agency predicts that global oil demand will reach a record high in 2023, an increase of 1.9 million barrels per day from 2022’s previous peak. 
• With LNG emerging as a critical resource to deal with the lingering global energy crisis, the United States catches up to Qatar as the world’s largest exporter.  

February 

• India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi projects his country will see demand for natural gas rise by 500 per cent while its share of global oil demand will increase from 5 to 11 per cent over the next 20 years. Meanwhile, India begins the search for long-term suppliers of LNG in an effort to reduce its reliance on coal. 
• The bill for the 2022 energy crisis comes due in Europe, where it’s learned European governments shelled out nearly US$900 billion to shield households and businesses from its impacts. Germany, which was a world leader in transitioning to renewable energy led the way in efforts to blunt the energy crisis’ impact, handing out nearly US$300 billion in subsidies. 
• Recognizing the rising global importance of reliable energy, Canadian oil producer IPC greenlights the first major new oil sands project in five years. The C$1.1 billion Blackrod project, which will be built to produce 30,000 barrels per day, is expected to be in operation by 2026. Meanwhile, Cenovus Energy filed an application to extend production at its Christina Lake oil sands project to 2079. 

March 

• China shows signs of economic resurgence after re-opening from its sweeping “zero-Covid” policies. The IEA projects China will account for nearly half of all projected growth in oil demand in 2023. 
• In the U.S., the Biden Administration approves a massive new oil project in Alaska, expected to produce as much as 180,000 barrels per day of crude oil over the course of 30 years. The project is also estimated to create some $17 billion in revenue for the U.S. federal government. 
• A new report by the UK-based Energy Transitions Commission finds that global investments in green energy would need to increase to $3.5 trillion per year in order to reach global net zero targets by 2050. That would add up to $110 trillion in new spending by 2050, more than the world’s current combined GDP. 

April 

• Indigenous leaders involved in Canada’s energy industry meet with diplomats from several of Canada’s G7 allies to make the case for being at the table when it comes to helping provide the energy the world needs. With Indigenous communities playing crucial roles in developing Canada’s LNG capacity, participants said diplomats showed significant interest in building economic relationships. 
• Leaders of the G7 meet in Hiroshima, Japan and agree that LNG will play an “important role” in helping navigate the global energy crisis and further investment in the industry is crucial. Despite pressure to agree to a full phase out of coal by 2030, the G7 will only agree to “accelerating the phase out of domestic unabated coal.” 
• A global survey that polled over 24,000 people in 28 countries found that Canada was the number one choice for countries that import oil, citing Canada’s strong record of democracy and environmental safety compared to other major producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia. 

May 

• Recognizing the growing need for energy security across Europe and the world, Norway says oil and gas companies have a “social responsibility” to find more oil and natural gas resources in the northern Barents Sea adding they should “leave no stone unturned” in the pursuit of the critical resources. A month later Norway approves $18.5 billion to develop 19 offshore oil and gas projects. 
• Skyrocketing demand for oil, led primarily by China’s economic surge, forces the IEA to recalculate its predictions for the year, upgrading its demand growth estimate to 2.2 million barrels per day to further increase record usage around the world. 
• Canada’s Public Policy Forum estimates phasing out the country’s oil and gas industry in an effort to reduce emissions will lead to the loss of some $100 billion to the nation’s economy by 2050, with Alberta bearing the brunt of the blow. “This essentially amounts to a deep recession without a recovery ever materializing,” the authors wrote. 

June 

• Qatar signs the first of several long-term LNG deals it will sign in 2023. Staring with two 27-year agreements to supply China with LNG, the Middle East supplier then signs another 15-year agreement with energy-starved Bangladesh. 
• Despite Western sanctions, Russian oil companies see gasoline exports jump 37 per cent compared to 2022 thanks to new customers in Africa and Asia. Meanwhile, China’s crude oil imports from Russia soar to a record high. 
• The annual Statistical Review of World Energy shows that record increases in solar and wind installations in 2022 failed to make a dent in the dominance of oil and gas in the global energy mix. Even with a record increase of 266 gigawatts of new renewable capacity, oil,gas and coal continued to represent 82 per cent of global energy consumption. 

July 

• The U.K. announces it will grant hundreds of new licences for oil and gas exploration in the North Sea in an effort to ensure energy security. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak says even if the U.K. achieves net zero by 2050, oil and gas will still be used for at least a quarter of its energy needs. 
• Japan, one of the world’s largest energy importers, calls for the creation of a global emergency reserve for natural gas to avoid future shortages and price spikes. 
• With rising global demand for LNG, the CEO of QatarEnergy predicts the tiny Middle Eastern nation will supply some 40 per cent of new LNG coming to market by 2029 as the U.S. works to significantly ramp up its industry.  

August 

• Independent researchers announce that China continues to ramp up coal power use, permitting 52 gigawatts of new capacity over the first six months of 2023. The additional plants would increase China’s coal burning capacity by 23 per cent. 
• Independent analysis by S&P Global finds that Canada’s oil sands emissions remained flat in 2022, despite production growth, a positive sign that measures to reduce emissions  are working. 
• For the second year in a row, Pakistan is forced out of the pricey LNG market, putting the impoverished country at high risk of a national energy crisis. 

September 

• Meeting in India, leaders of the G20 highlight the importance of energy security, and while agreeing to triple renewable capacity by 2030 avoid any language calling for a phase out of fossil fuels. Fault lines emerge between the West and developing nations that want to harness oil, natural gas and coal to grow their economies. 
• The IEA releases its updated road map for reaching net zero, suggesting global demand for fossil fuels will peak before 2030. The stance is blasted by OPEC as one that could lead to global “energy chaos” and ignores the IEA’s own acknowledgement that one the world’s current trajectory, oil, gas and coal will still account for 62 per cent of the world’s energy mix in 2050, compared to 78 per cent in 2021. 
• Saudi Aramco, one of the world’s largest oil producers, announces its intention to enter the burgeoning LNG industry, buying a minority stake in MidOcean Energy, which is looking to obtain stakes in four Australian LNG projects. 

October 

• Qatar officially breaks ground on the world’s largest LNG project, which will expand its production capacity from 77 million tonnes per year to 110 million tonnes per year. The groundbreaking coincides with three new 27-year LNG supply agreements with France, Italy and the Netherlands.  
• In its annual World Oil Outlook, OPEC warns the world will need $14 trillion in new investments in the oil sector by 2045 to ensure market stability and reduce the likelihood of energy shortages and economic chaos. 
• The U.S. eases sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector in exchange for the promise of free and fair elections for the South American dictatorship. Less than two weeks later, Venezuela’s supreme court suspends the results of an opposition party’s primary ahead of a 2024 national election. 

November 

• Three years after shovels first hit the ground, TC Energy announces it has reached mechanical completion of the Coastal GasLink pipeline. The 670-kilometre will be a critical piece of infrastructure for Canada’s developing LNG industry. 
• Despite its earlier World Energy Outlook suggesting a looming peak for oil demand, the IEA revises its prediction for 2024, estimating global demand for oil will reach a new record high of 102.9 million barrels per day next year. A more bullish OPEC predicts oil demand will reach 104.4 million barrels per day in 2024. 
• The U.K. government says it’s working toward legislation that would make annual oil and gas licensing rounds for the North Sea mandatory if the country is set to import more oil and gas than it produces domestically. 

December 

• World leaders leave COP28 in Dubai agreeing to eventually transition away from fossil fuels, aiming to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. But a key inclusion calls for the acceleration of low- and zero-emission technology like carbon capture and storage, an innovation in which Canada is a global leader. 
• Fresh off the U.S. lifting sanctions on its oil industry, Venezuela claims sovereignty over an oil-rich region of neighbouring Guyana – accounting for about two-thirds of its territory – after ignoring ongoing proceedings in the International Court of Justice to settle the long-standing dispute. 
• Russia says its crude oil exports will be seven per cent higher than in 2021 despite ongoing sanctions from the West. After losing most of its European customers, Russia reports that China and India now account for more than 90 per cent of its crude oil exports.  

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When John Desjarlais reflects on 2023, he admits he had feared a growing national tide of Indigenous investment in key energy projects was due to hit a speedbump.

Instead, as a new year approaches, the executive director of the Indigenous Resource Network (IRN) says any doubts have been replaced by optimism that the positive momentum of the last few years will flow into 2024.

“I’m feeling more optimistic now. I’m pleased to see the level of conversation being had with Indigenous leaders,” he said.

“I think there is growing opportunity for Indigenous participation across entire value chains, for board and executive positions, and more meaningful involvement. I think we’re really going to see the needle move in 2024.”

Despite the year’s slow start, Desjarlais said 2023 became something of a bellwether for how the rest of the world views the involvement of First Nations and Métis in Canada’s oil and gas industry.

In April, Desjarlais joined a delegation of Indigenous leaders in Ottawa to meet face-to-face with diplomats from some of the world’s strongest economies. Joined by Haisla Nation Chief Councillor Crystal Smith, First Nations LNG Alliance CEO Karen Ogen and former Enoch Cree First Nation chief Billy Morin, the delegation quickly learned not only was there an appetite for Canadian energy, but for Indigenous knowledge and participation on the critical file.

“Every official had a real desire to really understand Indigenous sentiment around resource development. There was a sincere desire to learn from our perspective,” Desjarlais told the CEC following the meetings with representatives from G7 allies Germany, France, Japan and the United States, as well as Poland and India.

However, while potential international energy partners are intrigued by the potential of relationships with Indigenous energy suppliers, a significant hurdle remains – the need for a national loan guarantee program that would empower more Indigenous ownership in community-transforming projects, particularly oil and gas.

Dale Swampy, president of the National Coalition of Chiefs, is a veteran in the fight for First Nations and Métis to fully benefit from critical resources to directly benefit communities. And he is hopeful there is growing recognition in Ottawa that enabling self-determination is an effective and enduring pathway to prosperity.

“The only way to defeat on-reserve poverty is to create ways to employ people,” he said.

“And the only industry that gives us this opportunity is the natural resources industry.”

Alberta has been a leader in helping open doors to indigenous ownership of major resource projects, launching the Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation (AIOC) in 2019. As the year came to a close, the AIOC announced two more major deals, which will see the total investment backed by the fund to date reach more than $680 million, directly impacting 42 Indigenous groups.

In what marks the second-largest loan guarantee backed by the provincial corporation, 12 Indigenous communities will invest $150 million to obtain 85 per cent ownership in oil and gas midstream infrastructure in the Marten Hills and Nipisi areas of the Clearwater play in Northern Alberta.

While the ink was still drying, two days later another deal saw five First Nations in northwestern Alberta enter into a $20.5 million partnership with NuVista Energy Ltd. for majority ownership of an emissions-reducing cogeneration unit at the Wembley gas plant in the County of Grande Prairie.

The AIOC’s success saw the Alberta government increase its loan guarantee capacity to $2 billion this year, and it’s set to increase it further to $3 billion for the 2024-2025 fiscal year.

Desjarlais’ IRN spent most of 2023 advocating for a federal version of the AIOC, to emulate its success at the national level.

In its fall financial update, the federal government announced it would unveil a new Indigenous loan guarantee program when it sets its 2024 budget this spring. But there has been no commitment to include oil and gas projects as part of the program.

Desjarlais said the fact a program has been promised is a good first step – now Indigenous leaders need to convince the federal government that imposing restrictions will only impede economic reconciliation.

“It looks like there is a program coming but we have to take a look at the exclusions,” he said.

“What we really want to see is less paternalism. Things are starting to work but self-determination is the ultimate goal.”

Desjarlais said the last few years have seen significant progress when it comes to Indigenous involvement in resource projects.

On the west coast, Indigenous-owned Cedar LNG and Ksi Lisims LNG will be at the vanguard of Canada’s first significant foray into exporting the in-demand fuel for customers in Asia. While several Indigenous communities across western Canada are investing in critical infrastructure like pipelines and carbon capture and storage projects.

For Swampy, that progress is long overdue. And it’s becoming increasingly clear that Indigenous communities no longer want to be reliant on government supports – they want to take control of their own destinies.

“They want to take part in the prosperity that comes with oil and gas, and they want to own it,” he said.

“All we ask is that we be involved when it comes to the question about land and resources. We don’t want to just be part of these consultations, we want to lead projects.”

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European governments are beginning to sound the retreat on some foundational net zero policies in the wake of “greenlash” from increasingly overburdened citizens.  

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 prompted European governments to begin pivoting away from cheap Russian natural gas, which Europe increasingly relied on to backstop a laundry list of ambitious green policies. 

But despite pledges by the European Union to “divest away from Russian gas as quickly as possible,” nearly 15% of overall EU gas imports still came from Russia in the first half of 2023, while the amount of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imported from Russia actually increased by 39.5% compared to the same period in 2021, prior to the Ukraine invasion. 

Energy security and affordability have become central issues for Europeans amid a persistent global energy crisis, and that’s translated into a rethink of what had once seemed like unassailable green policies across Europe. 

Here’s a look at how some countries are dealing with the new global reality: 

Germany 

Nothing is more symbolic of Europe’s retreat from its net zero ambitions than Germany seeing a wind farm dismantled to make room for the expansion of a lignite coal mine just outside of Dusseldorf. 

And no European country has been more affected by the changing energy landscape than Germany, which introduced its multi-billion dollar Energiewende program in 2010, calling for a broad phaseout of fossil fuels and nuclear power, replacing them primarily with wind and solar power. 

Today, without cheap and reliable natural gas backups due to sanctions against Russia, Germany has gone from Europe’s economic powerhouse to the world’s worst performing major developed economy, facing “deindustrialization” due to skyrocketing energy costs. 

In addition to extending its deadline for shutting down coal plants until 2024, the German government has also scrapped plans for imposing tougher building insulation standards to reduce emissions as well as extending the deadline on controversial legislation to phase out oil and gas heating systems in homes, a decision the government admits will make it impossible to reach the country’s 2030 emissions targets. 

A major car manufacturer, Germany’s opposition to an EU-wide ban on the sale of new combustion vehicles by 2035 softened the legislation to allow exceptions for those that run on e-fuels. 

Germany’s quest for reliable energy exports prompted Chancellor Olaf Scholz to travel to Canada to make a personal appeal for Canadian LNG. He was sent home empty handed, advised there wasn’t a strong business case for the resource. 

Great Britain 

Britons have grown increasingly concerned about the cost of net zero policies, despite being largely supportive of striving for a greener future. 

A YouGov poll in August found while 71% generally favoured Great Britain’s aim to reduce carbon emissions to net zero by 2050, some 55% agreed that policies should only be introduced if they don’t impose any additional costs for citizens. Only 27% agreed reaching the goal was important enough to warrant more spending. 

That shift in public sentiment prompted Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to pump the brakes on some key policies enacted to reach the U.K.’s legally binding target of reaching net zero emissions by 2050. 

In September, the government delayed its looming ban on new gas- and diesel-powered cars by five years to 2035, while also extending its phaseout of gas boilers in homes and suggesting exemptions for certain households and types of property. 

“If we continue down this path, we risk losing the British people and the resulting backlash would not just be against specific policies, but against the wider mission itself,” Sunak said of the potential consequences of maintaining strict net zero policies. 

The U.K. government also gave the green light for hundreds of new North Sea oil and gas licences, citing the need to bolster both energy security and the nation’s economy.  

France 

France’s net zero ambitions enjoy an advantage compared to its European peers due in large part to its significant fleet of nuclear power stations, which provide around 70 per cent of its electricity. 

However, President Emmanuel Macron has often opted for a more pragmatic approach to reaching climate targets, noting any energy transition can’t leave citizens disadvantaged. 

“We want an ecology that is accessible and fair, an ecology that leaves no one without a solution,” Macron said in September after ruling out a total ban on gas boilers, instead offering incentives to those looking to replace them with heat pumps. 

Macron also famously dropped a proposed fuel tax in 2018 that sparked sweeping yellow vest protests across France when it was announced.  

France has also extended the timeframe of its two remaining coal plants to continue operating until 2027, five years later than the plants were originally set to be shuttered. 

Italy 

Feeling the impacts of the global energy crisis, Italy has begun reassessing some of its previous commitments to transition goals. 

Earlier this year, Italy pushed back on EU directives to improve the energy efficiency of buildings, which Italy’s national building association warned would cost some $400 billion euros over the next decade, with another $190 billion euros needed to ensure business properties met the required standards. The Italian government has called for exemptions and longer timelines. 

Italy also warned the European Commission it would only support the EU’s phase out of combustion engine cars if it allows cars running on biofuels to eclipse the deadline, while further questioning a push to slash industrial emissions.  

Paolo Angelini, deputy governor at the Bank of Italy, warned a rapid abandonment of fossil fuel-driven industries could have a devastating impact. 

“If everybody divests from high-emitting sectors there will be a problem because if the economy does not adjust at the same time, things could blow up unless a miracle happens in terms of new technology,” he said. 

Poland 

Like Italy, Poland has dug in its heels against some EU net zero initiatives, and is actually suing the EU with the goal of overturning some of its climate-focused legislation in the courts. 

“Does the EU want to make authoritarian decisions about what kind of vehicles Poles will drive and to increase energy prices in Poland? The Polish Government will not allow Brussels to dictate,” wrote Polish Climate and Environment Minister Anna Moskwa on X, formerly known as Twitter, in July. 

In addition to looking to scrap the EU’s ban on combustion engine cars by 2035, Warsaw is also challenging laws around land use and forestry, updated 2030 emissions reduction targets for EU countries, and a border tariff on carbon-intensive goods entering the European Union. 

With some 70% of its electricity generated by coal, Poland is one of Europe’s largest users of coal. And it has no designs on a rapid retreat from the most polluting fossil fuel, reaching an agreement with trade unions to keep mining coal until 2049. 

Netherlands 

The political consequences of leaning too far in on net zero targets are beginning to be seen in the Netherlands. 

In March, a farmer’s protest party, the BBB or BoerBurgerBeweging (Farmer-Citizen Movement), shook up the political landscape by capturing 16 of 75 seats in the Dutch Senate, more than any other party, including the ruling coalition of the Labor and Green Parties. 

The upstart party was formed in 2019 in response to government plans to significantly reduce nitrogen emissions from livestock by 2030, a move estimated to eliminate 11,200 farms and force another 17,600 farmers to significantly reduce their livestock. 

What followed were nationwide protests that saw supermarket distribution centres blockaded, hay bales in flames and manure dumped on highways. 

In November, Dutch voters will elect a new national government, and while BBB has dropped to fifth in polling, much of that support has been picked up by the fledgling New Social Contract (NSC), which has vowed to oppose further integration with EU policies, a similar stance offered by the BBB. The NSC currently tops the polls ahead of the Nov. 22 election. 

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Without lights or camera, the film industry would have very little action. 

Whether going to the movie theatre or curling up on the couch to stream the latest Hollywood blockbuster, it’s worth taking a minute to consider that bringing the stories we love to the screen takes more than just actors and scripts. 

Making movie magic would become exceedingly difficult without oil and gas, as well as petroleum products, playing a starring role. 

From running generators that fuel massive sets in remote areas to transporting crews around the world to the perfect location, Hollywood leans heavily on oil and gas. Meanwhile, petrochemical products are used extensively for creating props, set design and pyrotechnics. 

But just how big of a part do fossil fuels play in filmmaking? 

According to a 2021 report by the Sustainable Production Alliance, the average blockbuster has an average carbon footprint of 3,370 metric tonnes, the equivalent emissions from powering 656 average homes for an entire year. Even large- and medium-scale productions use plenty of oil and gas, creating 1,081 metric tonnes and 769 metric tonnes of carbon emission respectively. 

Of that, nearly half is directly used for fuel for production vehicles and generators. About a quarter is used for air travel and some 22 per cent for utilities. 

Last year, 449 movies were released in Canada and the U.S. 

Streaming giant Netflix said its carbon footprint in 2021 was 1.5 million metric tonnes, more than half of that attributed to production of films and TV. The company is looking to slash emissions in half by 2030 and use oil and gas industry-pioneered innovations like carbon capture to ultimately bring its footprint to net zero. 

Beyond transportation and power, the basic building block of any film requires an abundance of gear that rely on petrochemical products. 

From durable carbon fibre used in sound booms and set design, to plastics used to make cameras and movie props, to assorted polyester, nylon and spandex used in costume design, it would be nearly impossible to find a movie set without a healthy dose of equipment derived from oil and gas. 

Gas generators are essential to keep shooting going into the night as well as providing reliable power for trailers used by actors for relaxing. 

Even the director’s clapperboard used to set the scene is commonly made from a white acrylic so it can be used with dry erase markers. 

Once produced, films are then displayed at movie theatres on large white vinyl screens to theatre-goers sitting on seats packed with polyurethane foam. 

So next time you reach for the popcorn and hunker down for some silver screen escapism, spare a moment to thank the contributions of oil and gas. 

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The Adidas OCEAUNZ, official ball of the 2023 Women’s World Cup of Soccer, soars through the air, its polyurethane skin a blur as it arcs toward the goal. 

The goalie makes a desperate dive across the emerald green natural turf – strengthened at the root for durability by flexible polypropylene fibres – to make the stop. 

The ‘keeper’s hands, sheathed in high-tech gloves made primarily from latex and polyurethane, reach for the streaking ball. 

The crowd leaps up from their moulded plastic seats as the ball hits the back of the net, an interlacing spiderweb most commonly made from polyethylene or nylon. 

As soccer fans prepare for the Women’s World Cup final in Australia and New Zealand, it’s difficult to imagine how different the event, which is expected to be viewed by a staggering 2 billon people around the world, would look and feel without products derived from oil and gas. 

At field level, nearly every practical aspect of the game relies on or is impacted by petroleum-based gear. 

From the synthetic leather turf cleats and polyester jerseys to the players’ benches, water bottles and medical equipment that adorn the sidelines, all are made possible from the contributions of oil and gas products. 

When a referee flashes a yellow or red card, it’s often made from a sturdy polyvinyl chloride, more commonly known as PVC. 

Extending beyond the field, that trend continues. 

From plastic spectator seating to polycarbonate scoreboards to advertising placards in and around the arena, all are thanks to the contributions of oil and gas. The event lights that encircle the arenas and the broadcasting equipment that allow the world to cheer their countries also rely heavily on products derived from petroleum. 

Even the competing nations’ flags that drape the facilities are made from nylon and polyester. 

With an expected 1.5 million spectators taking in the action in Australia and New Zealand, most will have had to travel by air or vehicle, which largely require oil and gas to operate. 

And when Canada’s women return home – unfortunately without the result they wanted (Tokyo’s Olympic gold medal helps to ease the pain a bit) – they’ll arrive on an airplane built with light-weight polymers and carbon fibre that will touch down on a smooth runway made of asphalt and concrete, neither of which would be possible without oil and gas. 

So while some may yearn for a return to the days of less aerodynamic leather balls, heavy cotton jerseys and fragile natural turf, the impact on “the beautiful game” would be enormous. 

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Federal Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault is continuing to plot a painful course toward a short-sighted phase out of Canada’s world class oil and gas sector based on an unrealistic view of world’s future energy mix. 

In an interview with Euractiv, Guilbeault said he supports the phase out of unabated fossil fuels, those without the technology to minimize emissions, by 2050 to align with the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Scenario, a path that is largely out of touch with the current global reality. 

Based on that increasingly unlikely scenario, the minister said he anticipates Canada’s oil and gas sector will follow suit with a 50% to 75% reduction in the production of oil and gas by 2050, which would be devastating for our economy, hurt our economic allies, and make little to no progress towards reducing global emissions. 

Here are the facts. 

Fact: The IEA’s Net Zero Scenario is largely aspirational, not practical 

Guilbeault’s vision of a massive global reduction of fossil fuel usage is growing even less likely amid a lingering energy crisis prompted by several years of declining investment in oil and gas followed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

The fact is, this year the world will use more oil and more coal than any time in human history. 

According to the IEA’s latest short-term outlook, global oil use will hit a record high of 102 million barrels per day this year and is expected to grow to 106 million barrels per day by 2028. Last week, OPEC forecasted that by 2045, global oil demand will reach 110 million barrels per day.  

Meanwhile, demand for natural gas, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG) is soaring. 

By 2040, global LNG demand – driven primarily by growing Asian economies – is expected to reach 700 million tonnes, a more than 75 per cent increase from 2022. Demand for LNG is expected to outpace supply by the middle of this decade. 

Relying on the IEA’s Net Zero scenario, Guilbeault said he believes oil use will decline to between 25-30 million barrels per day, a 75 per cent reduction. Rapid deployment of renewables, he said, would fill that void despite some significant hurdles that could hinder a sweeping transition.  

The bottom line is pretty clear. In the IEA’s most likely scenario, oil and gas will still account for 47 per cent of the global energy mix in 2050, a reduction of 5 per cent from 2021. While the share of renewables will more than double, it is still expected only to account for 29 per cent of the world’s energy mix in 2050. 

Fact: A rapid phase out of oil and gas would hurt Canada and its allies 

Canada’s oil and gas sector is a critical part of our economy, supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs from coast-to-coast, including thousands of jobs in manufacturing, environmental, and financial services tied to the industry, especially in Ontario and Quebec. 

A recent analysis by commodity data firm S&P Global focused specifically on the oil sands suggests that efforts to meet federal emissions targets for 2030 would likely force the industry to slash production by up to 1.3 million barrels per day. 

According to the analysis, that could result in the elimination of between 5,400 and 9,500 jobs. With just over 54,000 oil and gas extraction jobs in Canada, that would mean the elimination of as much as 17% of the workforce. 

In addition to jobs, the industry is also an economic bulwark, generating $168 billion in GDP in 2021, about 7.2 per cent of Canada’s economic activity. Oil and gas also accounted for nearly a third of Canada’s exports in 2021, injecting $140 billon into the economy. 

Amid the ongoing global energy crisis, some of Canada’s international allies have turned to Canada to be a potential key supplier as they look for stable and responsible suppliers to replace Russian oil and gas. 

The leaders of Germany and Japan made direct appeals to Canada to supply more LNG to help meet their energy needs. 

Yamanouchi Kanji, Japan’s ambassador to Canada, made it clear that some of our Asian allies see Canada as a key player in the world’s future energy, particularly when it comes to LNG. 

“The world is waiting for Canada,” he said earlier this year. “Canada can and should play a very important role to support the energy situation not only in Japan and South Korea, but the world.” 

Fact: Reducing global emissions starts with Canadian natural gas 

If Canada is truly serious about tackling global greenhouse gas emissions, we could make a much bigger impact by supplying energy-hungry Asian countries with some of the cleanest LNG on the planet to replace coal. 

Climate change is a global issue, not a local one. 

Despite being one of the world’s largest energy producers, Canada is still only responsible for about 1.6 per cent of total global emissions.  

Developing Asian counties, particularly China, have turned to coal to help power their growing economies. A switch to natural gas to generate power reduces emissions by 50 per cent on average, according to the IEA. Canadian natural gas shipped as LNG could perform even better, reducing emissions from coal by about 65 per cent, according to Energy for a Secure Future. 

With analysts expecting world LNG demand to double over the next two decades, Canada could make a real measurable impact on lowering global emissions by unlocking its LNG potential. 

A recent study by Wood Mackenzie found that Canadian LNG exports could reduce net emissions in Asia by 188 million tonnes per year through 2050. Put another way, that would be the annual equivalent of removing the emissions of all vehicles on Canadian roads, or wiping out nearly three time’s B.C.’s total emissions. 

Meanwhile, a coalition of six companies representing 95 per cent of Canada’s oil sand production have jointly committed to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. The Pathways Alliance is looking to harness emerging technology like carbon capture and storage as well as small modular nuclear reactors to reach that target. 

The reality is that if Canada significantly curtails its oil and gas industry, other national producers, some of which lack Canada’s commitment to democratic ideals and the environment, will fill that void. This could see bad actors like Russia continue to maintain a strategic and economic advantage over Europe by maintaining European reliance on its energy. 

Fact: Phasing out oil and gas would hurt Indigenous communities 

Over the last decade, Indigenous communities have emerged as key players in Canada’s energy sector, allowing First Nations in many cases to create intergenerational opportunity for their people. 

From pipelines to LNG terminals, dozens of Indigenous communities have entered into ownership agreements on major oil and gas projects. 

In B.C., 16 First Nations will acquire a 10 per cent stake in the Coastal GasLink pipeline once it’s completed later this year. In Alberta, another 23 First Nation and and Métis communities are now approximately 12 per cent owners of seven operating Enbridge oil sands pipelines, the largest Indigenous energy transaction ever in North America. 

And in northwest B.C., the Haisla Nation is 50 per cent owner of the proposed Cedar LNG project, which would be the first Indigenous-owned LNG terminal in the world. 

“When Europeans, Asians and Americans think of Canada’s Indigenous peoples, they often think we oppose all energy development. We aren’t victims of development. Increasingly we are partners and even owners in major projects,” Haisla Nation Chief Councillor Crystal Smith said during an April press conference after leading a delegation of Indigenous leaders to meet key international diplomats. 

Indigenous employment in Canada’s oil and gas sector has continued to grow, rising by more than 20 per cent since 2014 to reach an estimated 10,400 jobs in 2020. 

Indigenous-owned businesses also benefit from the industry, with three major projects – the Trans Mountain Expansion, Coastal GasLink, and LNG Canada – spending some $9 billion with Indigenous- and locally-owned businesses.   

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For Jean-Francois Gauthier, space is the next frontier in the quest to reduce global emissions, and the view from 6,000-kilometres above Earth is that Canada is a leader in curbing the most polluting of greenhouse gases.

In April, Quebec-based GHGSat launched three more methane-sniffing satellites into Earth’s orbit – Mey-Lin, Gaspard and Océane – bringing its high-tech constellation of celestial emissions monitors to nine.

Gauthier, GHGSat’s vice-president of measurements and strategic initiatives, said after eight years of having eyes in the sky, one thing has become crystal clear – Canada is a world leader when it comes to taming methane emissions, a greenhouse gas many times more polluting than CO2.

“Canada’s performance from what we see anyway, with our satellites, is much better than the rest of the world,” he said.

“It’s shedding a light on the fact that Canada continues to be a leader on [methane emissions]. There’s always work to do – that said, if you don’t see as much with satellites, it’s encouraging because those are the biggest leaks that need addressing right away.”

TACKLING METHANE

Canada’s oil and gas industry has been working hard to tackle methane emissions over the last two decades.

Even as Canadian oil production grew 91 per cent between 2000 and 2018, Canada’s methane emissions declined by 16 per cent. Over the same period, worldwide methane emissions increased by 27 per cent while oil production only grew by 38 per cent.

In Alberta, the heart of Canada’s oil and gas sector, efforts to reduce methane emissions are well ahead of schedule, dropping by 44 per cent between 2014 and 2021, including a 10 per cent drop from 2020. That puts the sector within a stone’s throw of reaching (and likely surpassing) its target of reducing methane emissions by 45 per cent by 2025.

Gauthier said GHGSat is looking to launch three more satellites by year’s end and has sky-high ambitions to provide a true daily snapshot of global emissions. And it’s that data, viewable by industry, policy makers and the public, that can help determine the world’s heaviest emitters and act as a catalyst for action.

“Now we’re turning our attention already to the next batches because we have ambitions to get to 100 … ideally by the end of 2026, mid-2027,” he said, noting that would include a suite of satellites and airplanes to spot any major changes in emissions.

“The ambition really is to be able to look at all emitting sites worldwide on a daily basis. So now you can really decide where to take action and start eliminating some of those biggest sources.”

HUMBLE BEGINNING IN SPACE

Seen as a world leader in orbital emissions monitoring, GHGSat started in 2016 with a small, microwave-sized prototype satellite called Claire, in collaboration with Canada’s Oil Sands Innovation Alliance (COSIA) and other industrial partners.

She was joined in 2020 by her stellar sibling Iris, following a successful launch onboard an 11.7-metre tall Vega rocket from the Kourou International Spaceport in French Guiana. From there the company has launched a steady stream of increasingly refined satellites into orbit, each one bearing the name of one of the team members’ children.

The company contracts out its monitoring services to oil and gas companies, government and increasingly mining, waste management, agriculture and other emissions-intensive industries. While private sector data is owned by clients, GHGSat also offers searchable real-time emissions data available to the general public at a lower level of resolution.

Gauthier said GHGSat continues to work with the European Space Agency to provide ongoing climate data, and is in talks with NASA, which is currently assessing the company’s platform to be part of its commercial small satellite data acquisition program.

Last year, GHGSat’s six operational satellites observed over 500,000 sites in 69 countries, measuring some 179 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent methane emissions, which equates to the same annual emissions of 38.6 million cars.

Gauthier said GHGSat targeted methane not only due to its heavier environmental footprint, but due to the fact that its easier to measure from space.

CO2: THE NEXT FRONTIER

However, he adds with improvements in technology the one of the next trio of satellites set for launch will key in on CO2 in an effort to provide a more complete picture of the planet’s greenhouse gas hotspots.

“We’re confident that using the same techniques that we’ve been using for methane we can use for CO2, and then be able to zero in directly to the sources,” Gauthier said.

“Industrial sites like cement plants, power plants, steel mills, aluminum smelters – these kinds of large CO2 emitters, we should be able to measure quite readily.”

Gauthier said getting a true picture of the problem is the first step. The next step is to find solutions to heavy emitters.

Coal use is expected to reach record levels this year as the global energy crisis continues. Liquefied natural gas from Canada can make an immediate difference in reducing emissions, with a report from Wood Mackenzie showing that if Canada increased its LNG export capacity to Asia, net emissions could decline by 188 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent per year – about the annual impact of taking 41 million cars off the road.

Canada is also a world leader in developing carbon capture and storage technology, accounting for 15 per cent of global capacity despite producing less than 2 per cent of global emissions.

“The bottom line is that technologies are here, not just to measure, but to fix leaks and take care of these greenhouse gas emissions,”

“It’s really time to take action. That is, I think, is probably the most exciting thing is that the tools are there, and now it’s time to use them.”

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As G7 leaders left Hiroshima, Japan they made a significant admission that liquefied natural gas (LNG) is a critical fuel to help reduce dependence on Russian energy, and that increased natural gas investment is important.

“In this context, we stress the important role that increased deliveries of LNG can play and acknowledge that investment in the sector can be appropriate in response to the current crisis and to address potential gas market shortfalls provoked by the crisis,” wrote the G7 in their final communique last week.

The decision comes just weeks after a small group of Indigenous leaders went to Ottawa to meet face-to-face with diplomats from some of the world’s top economies, convened by Energy for a Secure Future.

Their message to the world was simple: Indigenous communities in Canada can and should be partners at the table when it comes to developing and sharing our country’s vast natural resources. And it may have resonated.

For John Desjarlais, executive director of the Indigenous Resource Network, the vote of confidence for LNG is music to his ears.

“I’d like to think that we were heard – we met with some pretty influential people and heard some of the right things,” he said.

“For them to make that commitment is a big deal, and certainly a difference from some of the early indicators before the G7.”

Tapped earlier this year as the new executive director of the Indigenous Resource Network, Desjarlais found himself in Ottawa with other Indigenous leaders in April, meeting with diplomatic representatives from Canada’s G7 partners – Germany, France, Japan and the United States – as well as delegations from Poland and India.

Desjarlais said he was surprised just how open diplomats were to the notion that Indigenous communities in Canada can be key players in the global energy marketplace.

“What a whirlwind. It was inspiring, especially speaking with the ambassadors,” Desjarlais said of the two-day diplomatic blitz that both challenged perceptions and paved a path for Indigenous voices to play a greater role on the international stage.

“Every official had a real desire to really understand Indigenous sentiment around resource development. There was a sincere desire to learn from our perspective.”

First Nations and Metis have emerged as key partners in Canadian resource projects, particularly the country’s nascent LNG industry.

Global demand for reliable and responsibly produced LNG has continued to grow, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year thrusting it into even greater prominence. The leaders of Canada’s G7 partners Germany and Japan both came to Canada last year to make direct appeals for more Canadian LNG – they left with no firm commitments.

Desjarlais and a group of fellow Indigenous leaders who are on the advisory council for Energy for a Secure Future – a non-partisan coalition of business, labour and Indigenous representatives – outlined their vision for how Canada and First Nations can help be a solution in the drive for increased global energy security, while also helping lower emissions by providing a cleaner alternative to coal.

Crystal Smith, chief councillor of the Haisla Nation on B.C.’s coast, said the first step is dispelling the notion that Indigenous people oppose resource development in Canada.

“When Europeans, Asians and Americans think of Canada’s Indigenous peoples, they often think we oppose all energy development,” she said during a press conference to mark April’s diplomatic meetings.

“We aren’t victims of development. Increasingly we are partners and even owners in major projects.”

The Haisla Nation has a 50 per cent ownership stake in the proposed $3-billion Cedar LNG project, which was granted regulatory approval earlier this year, and is expected to begin operations in 2027.

It marks the largest Indigenous-owned infrastructure project in Canadian history, as well as the first Indigenous-owned LNG terminal in the world.

Karen Ogen, CEO of the First Nations LNG Alliance, said it’s projects like Cedar LNG and others currently under development that will not only help Indigenous communities achieve prosperity, but help the global community in the quest for vital energy security.

“LNG development has provided immediate- and medium-termed opportunities to lift thousands of Indigenous people and our communities out of inter-generational poverty,” she said.

“We are determined to develop our resources in a socially and environmentally responsible way. We want to work with Canada and our allies in the G7 to bring urgency to the development and export of Canadian LNG.”

Beyond Cedar LNG, dozens of First Nations and Métis communities have entered into equity ownership agreements in pipelines, LNG facilities and carbon capture and storage projects, among others.

The Ksi Lisims LNG project, a joint venture with the Nisga’a Nation in northern B.C., has been granted a 40-year export licence from the Canada Energy Regulator, while in Atlantic Canada the Miawpukek First Nation is a part-owner of the proposed export project LNG Newfoundland and Labrador.

Large consortiums representing Indigenous communities have also acquired or are looking to acquire stakes in major pipeline projects including Coastal GasLink, Trans Mountain, and several oil sands pipelines.

According to Desjarlais, the Ottawa summit proved to be a fruitful meeting of the minds. He said it could signal a more important role for Indigenous communities both as more equal resource partners in Canada, but on the world stage as well. The group has been asked to meet again in June with U.S. ambassador David Cohen.

“I never thought it would accelerate to this point – it’s accelerating so fast,” he said.

“Ownership is reconciliation. There’s a whole cascade of benefits that come from these projects everywhere.”

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It’s been just over a year since noted Canadian environmentalist David Suzuki mused about an escalation in tactics by anti-oil and gas activists that could ultimately see “pipelines blown up.” 

While that extreme outcome has thankfully yet to occur here, his comments – for which he later apologized – turned out to be somewhat prophetic in 2022. 

Since Suzuki’s remarks, which he blamed on “extreme frustration,” there has been a clear uptick in extreme measures and eco-terrorism used by opponents of the oil and gas industry in Canada, as well as globally. 

From the fiery destruction of vehicles owned by an RBC executive in suburban Montreal to a violent armed attack on a Coastal GasLink worksite in B.C. that terrorized workers, activists are embracing increasingly dangerous tactics that not only threaten Canada’s economic health, but the safety of the public as well. 

Unquestionably, the largest flashpoint for activists engaging in illegal action in Canada has been the 670-kilometre Coastal GasLink project, which has now reached about 80 per cent completion. 

In February 2022, a group of 20 masked attackers, wearing camouflage gear and wielding axes, attacked a work camp near Smithers, B.C., about 1,100 kilometres northwest of Vancouver. 

According to RCMP, the attackers forced workers to flee the site before going on a destructive spree, destroying millions in equipment and infrastructure. Police rushing to the scene had to contend with makeshift barricades, felled trees, wire and spiked boards, with assailants throwing smoke bombs and fire-lit sticks at them as they tried to reach the camp. One officer was injured. 

“This is a very troubling escalation in violent criminal activity that could have resulted in serious injury or death,” said B.C. RCMP North District Chief Supt. Warren Brown following the incident. 

“This was a calculated and organized violent attack that left its victims shaken and a multi-million dollar path of destruction. While we respect everyone’s right to peacefully protest in Canada, we cannot tolerate this type of extreme violence and intimidation.” 

A zine published by anarchist website mtlcounterinfo.org defended the violence while encouraging similar direct actions in the future. 

“Retrospectively it seems clear that the purpose of the axes was to drive these forces away from the site and thereby minimize the amount of physical conflict involved with carrying out the action,” the anonymous authors wrote.  

“In regards to property destruction we would argue that a diversity of tactics in the struggles which includes both non-violent disobedience and property destruction is necessary.” 

No arrests have been made nearly a year later, despite a $100,000 reward offered by industry for information that leads to charges against the attackers. 

In the months that followed the violent attack in B.C., two RBC executives in Quebec saw their homes targeted by activists, with one blasted with paint from a fire extinguisher, and another that saw several cars torched in the driveway of a suburban home with what anarchists was done in “the spirit of vengeance.”  

Activists also vandalized several banks across Canada, sabotaged railway track circuitry, blockaded key rail infrastructure, and broke into a drilling contracting company in Calgary before destroying equipment. 

In October, several vehicles, including four RCMP cruisers and an ambulance, were set on fire in parking lot of the Sunshine Inn in Smithers, with anarchists later claiming responsibility for the arson in an anonymous post that boasted, “Burning cop cars is easy.” 

“We must all sharpen our pain into the determination necessary to act against those responsible for our suffering,” they wrote. 

Canada is not alone in seeing a surge in violent action by those claiming to be acting in defense of the environment. 

In France, police reported no fewer than 104 acts of eco-terrorism undertaken by environmental and social justice activists between the beginning of 2022 and Oct. 30 of last year, according to Le Figaro. Anarchists targeted everything from telecommunications infrastructure to windfarms in an effort to defy “the electrical order.” 

Whether by happenstance or design, the increasingly violent actions by campaigners coincides with what the International Energy Agency has deemed the world’s first truly global energy crisis. 

As European nations look for alternatives to Russian energy, the reality is oil and gas remain critical pillars of the global economy, and will for many decades to come. That reality has led to a massive boom in demand for liquefied natural gas in Europe and Asia, which will ultimately be the product added to the world’s supply when Coastal GasLink – along with the LNG Canada export terminal – come online. 

Coastal GasLink has also been a boon for Indigenous communities, with all 20 elected First Nations governments along the route signing benefit agreements and 16 Indigenous communities along the pipeline route agreeing to a 10 per cent ownership stake in the pipeline when it’s completed. 

Canada’s oil and gas sector is a world leader in environmental excellence, social responsibility and governance standards and is seen by European leaders as a supplier of choice. Canadian LNG also has the ability to make a measurable difference in lowering global emissions by helping replace coal-fired electricity in Asia. 

And while the demand for oil and gas remains strong, the alternatives to Canadian resources are often regimes that abuse human rights and deny freedom to their people. In 2020, about half of the global oil and gas production comes from nations that are considered tyrannies or autocracies, making Canada among the one-third of world producers considered to be free. 

As for Suzuki, he remains frustrated. 

In October, nearly a year after he warned of pipelines being blown up, the octogenarian activist crashed a tourism press conference in Vancouver, complaining that the federal government isn’t doing enough to address climate change to encourage tourism. 

He reportedly left the event in a seaplane.  

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As winter sets in across Europe, the real impacts of the worst energy crisis in a half century are starting to be felt by both industries and individuals.

In the United Kingdom, three-quarters of all households, or 53 million people, will be pushed into energy poverty by January, defined as having to spend 10 per cent or more of their net income on fuel.

Germany’s Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance is urging households to stock up on battery-powered flashlights and candles, preparing meals on camp stoves and stocking up on “long-life foods that can be eaten cold,” as regular blackouts to reduce fuel demand has become a strong possibility.

Even Switzerland’s small population of under 9 million is being warned that they may have to leave their electric vehicles parked, and even turn off their game consoles and Christmas lights in the event of significant power shortages.

Even with our vast natural resources, Canadians haven’t been immune, with soaring energy prices impacting costs at the pumps, restaurants and grocery shelves.

Welcome to the global energy crisis of 2022. Hope you brought a sweater.

But how did we get here?

While many point to the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the seeds of the energy crisis had been sown years earlier, with some countries pushing a rapid phase out of fossil fuel production that hobbled investment into critical domestic oil and gas projects while ramping up energy imports from producers like Russia, despite its history of weaponizing natural resources.

The following is a timeline of today’s world energy crisis, which provides both a warning for Canada, as well as an opportunity to help our global partners by supplying the energy security they so desperately need.

2020 – 2021:

• The COVID-19 pandemic slows investment in new oil and gas development, spurred by reduced demand and crashing global oil prices.

Summer 2021:

• With global energy markets rebounding, Europe faces a wind drought, with the continent’s largest producers – Great Britain, Germany and Denmark – harnessing just 14 per cent of power capacity, compared to an average of about 20-26 per cent in previous years. With less wind power, demand for coal and natural gas rises, along with prices.

September 2021:

• Despite a growing array of nations agreeing to phase out coal, power generation from coal-fired plants reaches an all-time high, increasing by 8 per cent and accounting for more than half of the additional power demand in 2021. That growth, largely driven by Asia, results in record emissions from coal of more than 100 megatonnes over the previous peak in 2018.

November 2021:

• With elevated energy costs impacting prices at gas pumps and home heating bills, Washington withdraws 50 million barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the first of many such withdrawals in the months ahead. The SPR is maintained to ensure energy security in the event of global shortages of oil and gas.

December 2021:

• Natural gas prices reach record highs with dire warnings prices could go even higher with Russian troops massing on Ukraine’s border.

January 2022:

• UK energy company OVO, one of Britain’s largest utilities, advises customers facing steep power bills to cuddle pets, leave ovens on and eat porridge to stay warm.
• A slowdown in natural gas exports from Russia to Western Europe results in a 30 per cent increase in gas prices, prompting International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol to accuse Russia of manufacturing the energy crisis by throttling supply and heightening “geopolitical tensions.”
• Birol identifies Canada is a preferred global oil and gas supplier and should take steps to ensure it remains so in the decades to come. “We will still need oil and gas for years to come… I prefer that oil is produced by countries… like Canada who want to reduce the emissions of oil and gas,” he says.

February 2022:

• Japan agrees to redirect some of its imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe as increasing supply disruptions from Russia worsen as tensions grow with the west.
• As energy prices continue to soar in Europe, governments begin efforts to shield households and businesses via measures like subsidies and price caps.
• Following months of flaring tensions, Russian troops invade eastern Ukraine prompting widespread condemnation and raising concerns over how Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and gas could impact international response.

March 2022:

• The first economic sanctions against Russia are announced, with Canada and the U.S. quickly ordering a ban of oil and gas imports from Russia. Due to its heavier reliance on Russian energy, the EU takes a more cautious approach, agreeing to reduce purchases of Russian gas by two-thirds by the end of 2022.
• With the cost of gasoline and energy beginning to soar, Washington considers diplomatic talks with state-owned oil and gas producers in Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Iran to help replace Russian energy impacted by sanctions.
• Days after Russia’s invasion, the U.S. administration orders the release of another 30 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an effort to boost global supply. By month’s end, Washington orders ongoing releases of an average of 1 million barrels of oil per day for the next six months to act as a bridge while “domestic production ramps up.”

April 2022:

• The World Bank warns the energy crisis will spark the largest commodity shock in 50 years, which will impact everything from energy to food to consumer goods.
• Decommissioned coal plants in Europe are brought back online while China begins to ramp up coal production in response to soaring energy costs.
• In a sign of things to come, European countries look at ways to ration energy, including in Italy, which bans schools and public buildings from setting air conditioning lower than 25C.

May 2022:

• Hungry for alternatives to Russian natural gas, European countries become major players on the global LNG import market, significantly driving up costs while pricing some LNG-reliant Asian countries out of the market.
• The Bank of America warns a further drop in supply of Russian oil and gas will likely trigger a global recession and wreak havoc on energy markets.
• Amid a heat wave and with domestic supplies tapped, India’s power ministry calls for more coal imports to stave off blackouts.

June 2022:

• Steel, chemical and fertilizer manufacturers begin shutting down European factories due to the impact of soaring oil and gas prices as well as growing concerns Russia may cut off energy supplies.
• After meeting in Germany, G7 leaders agree that increasing LNG deliveries is important and that “investment in this sector is necessary in response to the current crisis.”
• Soaring LNG prices force Pakistan to scrap energy contracts despite a worsening power crisis that prompts the government to order shopping malls and factories to close early in some cities.

July 2022:

• Following a three-month economic crisis that saw Sri Lanka run out of all its fuel reserves after being unable to secure fresh supplies, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa flees the country, prompting thousands of protestors to storm the presidential palace.
• IEA head Birol warns the global energy crisis will continue to worsen in the months ahead, noting “The world has never witnessed such a major energy crisis in terms of its depth and its complexity.”
• European lawmakers vote to move ahead with a plan to label some nuclear and natural gas power as green energy, a major shift from previous EU policy.

August 2022:

• Despite western sanctions against Russian oil and gas sparked by its invasion of Ukraine, it’s expected Russia will see a 38 per cent increase on earnings from its energy exports compared to 2021, due to increasing purchases from Asian buyers and soaring energy prices.
• Skyrocketing energy prices across the U.K. are expected to take a heavier toll than the 2008 financial crisis, with more than half of all households at risk of falling into energy poverty.
• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits Canada hoping to secure a reliable supply of LNG, saying “As Germany is moving away from Russian energy at warp speed, Canada is our partner of choice. We hope that Canadian LNG will play a major role in this.” Despite the plea, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau expresses skepticism about the business case to supply LNG to Europe.

September 2022:

• The EU proposes a temporary windfall tax on profits for fossil fuel companies in order to raise $140 billion Euros to provide income supports or consumer rebates for member countries amid the energy crisis. The commission also suggests a requirement for countries to cut overall electricity demand by at least 10 per cent until the end of March.
• Claiming repairs are needed, Russia halts the supply of gas to Europe via its Nord Stream 1 pipeline, disrupting plans by Germany and other European nations to top up energy reserves before winter.
• Explosions in the Baltic Sea rupture both the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines that connect Russia’s natural gas to Europe. It’s later determined the three massive leaks are the result of sabotage.

October 2022:

• Amid ongoing energy shortages, blackouts sweep across up to 80 per cent of Bangladesh after the national grid collapses, threatening to inflict severe damage to the economy of the world’s second largest exporter of clothing.
• The IEA’s 2022 World Energy Outlook predicts in the coming year some 75 million people around the world will lose access to electricity and another 100 million will have to go back to cooking with wood or dung.
• Despite the ongoing energy crisis, OPEC+ member countries, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, agree to slash oil production by 2 million barrels per day, citing “the uncertainty that surrounds the global economic and oil market outlooks.”

November 2022

• Global demand for floating LNG storage and regasification platforms skyrockets as countries look to boost their ability to boost imports of natural gas.
• The United Kingdom’s national electricity grid makes plans for planned blackouts for households between 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. on “really, really cold weekdays” over the winter months.
• Despite refusing to diplomatically recognize Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the U.S. agrees to lift sanctions to allow it to resume oil imports from a nation its State Department describes as “marked by authoritarianism, intolerance for dissent, and violent and systematic repression of human rights and fundamental freedoms.”

December 2022:

• The IEA warns EU countries face a potential shortfall of nearly 30 billion cubic metres of natural gas in 2023, about 7 per cent of its total consumption, potentially paving the way for the energy crisis to worsen next year.
• JP Morgan investment bank CEO Jamie Dimon warns Europe’s energy crisis could extend for several years due primarily to chronic underinvestment in oil and gas.

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