As construction gets underway on Cedar LNG, the world’s first Indigenous majority-owned LNG export terminal, a report from RBC highlights the project as a model of successful energy development in Canada.

“We broke a pattern that had existed for over a century,” said Karen Ogen, CEO of the First Nations Natural Gas Alliance.

“First Nations have been at the heart of the LNG opportunity, not on the sidelines or just on the job sites but in the boardrooms helping to make it happen.”

RBC said the Cedar LNG project in Kitimat, B.C. – a partnership between the Haisla Nation (50.1 per cent) and Pembina Pipeline Corporation (49.9 per cent) – is a model for Indigenous economic reconciliation in action.

“Canada’s future growth and prosperity depends heavily on getting Indigenous economic reconciliation right,” said report co-author Varun Srivatsan, RBC’s director of policy and strategic engagement.

“If not, the country’s ability to diversify our resource exports, enjoy independence and resiliency in strategic sectors, and improve productivity, which has lagged that of other countries for years, are all at risk.”

RBC outlined the enormous potential of Indigenous-led energy projects to drive economic growth.

Almost three-quarters of the 504 major resource and energy projects planned or underway in Canada run through or are within 20 kilometres of Indigenous territories.

The value of Indigenous equity opportunity from these projects is estimated at $98 billion over the next 10 years, with oil and gas projects dominating the list at $57.6 billion.

“It’s clear that First Nations are critical to LNG in Canada. It’s First Nations territory from where the gas is extracted in Treaty 8 territory, it’s First Nations territory across which gas is transported via pipeline, it’s First Nations territory where LNG terminals are located, and it’s First Nations waters through which carriers take LNG to market. This is why we say Canadian LNG is Indigenous LNG. And we are going to make history,” Ogen said.

Cedar LNG reached a final investment decision last June, following a permitting process that saw the Haisla Nation directly involved in planning the facilities and operations.

This includes a floating LNG terminal with emissions among the world’s lowest, at 0.08 per cent CO2 equivalent per tonne of LNG compared to the global average of 0.35 per cent. Operations are slated to start in late 2028.

“Our community felt it was important that our values of being Haisla, being Indigenous, were felt through every decision that was being made. That is what makes this project unique,” said Crystal Smith, the Haisla Nation’s elected chief councillor.

Central to the Haisla’s involvement in Cedar LNG are the jobs and ongoing revenues that benefit the nation and neighbouring communities.

This has included support for education and cultural programs and building a state-of-the-art health facility and a new housing development.

“Cedar LNG shows what is achievable when you have a shared vision,” Smith said.

“It is going to mean that my kids and grandkids have a different future from what I or anybody in my generation have experienced in our community. It is going to revive our culture, revive our language, and make us stronger going forward.”

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Growing up in the 1980s, Crystal Smith felt supported and nourished by her community, the Haisla Nation along the shores of Kitimat, British Columbia. But at the same time, she also sensed the outside world had placed some limitations on her future. 

“I enjoyed a wonderful childhood with a solid foundation and lots of love, especially from my grandma Cecilia Smith. She raised me because I lost my mother and stepdad at a young age. But it wasn’t popular to be Indigenous when I grew up,” says Smith.  

“A lot of people would talk about how Indigenous people were not expected to be successful. That kind of talk really affected my confidence about what I could be.” 

Smith, now the Haisla Nation’s elected chief councillor, never wants children in her community to feel those constraints.  

Her community has seized on a major opportunity to build prosperity and resiliency for future generations. The Haisla Nation is a partner in the proposed $3.4 billion Cedar LNG project, the world’s first to have Indigenous ownership. A final go-ahead decision for the project to proceed is expected by the middle of this year.  

Smith, who has served as board chair of the First Nations LNG Alliance since 2019, has already seen tangible changes in her community since the project was announced. 

“It’s hard to put into words about the impact on the ground in terms of how this opportunity has affected our members in their lives,” she says.  

“We were just interviewing candidates to serve as board directors on our economic development corporation and one candidate, who is from our community, just amazed me with how far he has come in terms of pursuing his education and how much his career has progressed.” 

Of her own career, Smith says she knew since college that her future was in serving the community. She started working in the Haisla band administration in 2009 and was first elected chief councillor in 2017.  

“I was lucky because my family really pushed me to seek an education after high school, so I took the business program at Coast Mountain College. I also helped that I had mentors in my community, including my father Albert Robinson, who served as an elected Haisla councillor, and Ellis Ross (now an elected MLA in B.C), who was very inspiring in terms of his vision as chief councillor and encouraged me to take the step into elected office,” Smith says.  

“When I came back to the community from school, I knew I would end up working in our band office. I wanted to see more opportunities for people in my community and LNG provides that.” 

She already sees the benefits of the development, as well as the Haisla Nation’s participation in the LNG Canada project, within her own family including for her grandsons.  

“Xavier is six and he goes to the same school I attended as a child. He gets to learn parts of our culture, our teachings, as well as the value and importance of family and community. There’s more of an emphasis on our language and culture in the curriculum, which really makes me happy. Luka, who just turned two, will also attend that school when he’s old enough,” Smith says.  

“I want programs and services to meet our needs, not the level of government’s needs. And we need to make sure that it is sustainable not just for my grandsons or their peers but for seven generations beyond this one.” 

Cedar LNG is coming closer and closer to fruition, with all permits in place and early construction underway.  

An eight-kilometre pipeline will be built connecting the recently completed Coastal GasLink pipeline to deliver natural gas to the floating Cedar LNG terminal located along the Douglas Channel near Kitimat.  

The facility will be capable of producing up to three million tonnes of liquefied natural gas every year, which will be transported by carriers through the Douglas Channel to Hecate Straight, using the existing deepwater shipping lane, to reach customers in the Asia-Pacific region.  

Powered entirely by renewable energy from BC Hydro, Cedar LNG will be one of the lowest carbon intensity LNG facilities in the world. Its so-called emissions intensity will be 0.08 per cent CO2 per tonne, compared to the global average of 0.35 per cent per tonne. 

 Up to 500 people will work on the project during the peak of construction. Approximately 100 people will be working at the facility full-time during operation, which is expected to start in the second half of 2028.  

Smith says the benefits of the project will extend beyond the 2,000 members of the Haisla Nation. 

“This work has really helped us reconnect with other Indigenous communities along pipelines and shipping routes,” she says.  

“When I was growing up, our communities never had the opportunity to come together because we were separated by the territorial boundaries imposed by the Indian Act. And we were fighting each other for financial scraps from Indian Affairs.  

“Now we are working together to make our own opportunities as owners and developers of the resource. That’s very empowering and the most important part. Participating in developing these resources provides independence. It’s the only solution for my nation and other Indigenous communities.” 

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It’s going to be a big year for Canadian energy, with major milestones anticipated that will transform Canada from a supplier with a single customer (the United States) to a global player.  

Global demand for oil and gas is expected to stay strong in the decades ahead as the world works to reduce emissions, still supplying nearly half of energy needs in 2050, according to the International Energy Agency.  

Activity in 2024 promises to highlight Canada’s position as a supplier of choice with a leading approach to reducing emissions and engaging Indigenous communities.  

Here are five things to watch.  

5. Start-Up Activities for LNG Canada 

Construction of the LNG Canada export terminal is now more than 90 per cent complete. Photo courtesy LNG Canada

Against the backdrop of surging liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand – Asia’s consumption hit a record 26.6 million tonnes in December – Canada’s first LNG export terminal is preparing for start-up. 

LNG Canada will have among the world’s lowest emissions for LNG supply, at 0.15 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per tonne of LNG, less than half the global average.  

This year, the terminal at Kitimat, B.C. will test and fine-tune equipment and the process of producing LNG will begin, the company says.  

The start-up program will take more than one year to complete.  

Moving into the final stages at LNG Canada follows the recent completion of the Coastal GasLink Pipeline, connecting natural gas supply from northeast B.C.  

4. Progress Toward Oil Sands Net Zero 

The Pathways Alliance has extensive work underway on the environmental program for its proposed CCS project, involving 135 experts ranging from aquatic and wildlife biologists to archeologists and paleontologists who have spent more than 1,600 hours in the field working to minimize environmental disturbance. Photo courtesy Pathways Alliance

Major regulatory applications are expected in 2024 for one of the world’s largest proposed carbon capture and storage (CCS) networks, located in Canada’s oil sands.  

The project would connect CO2 captured at an initial 14 oil sands facilities by pipeline to a shared hub for storage deep underground.  

It is the foundation of the plan by the Pathways Alliance – companies representing 95 per cent of oil sands production – to reduce emissions from operations by nearly one third by 2030 on the way to net zero by 2050. 

Pathways has said that after regulatory approvals are complete, CO2 injection and storage could begin by late 2026.

3. Growth in Indigenous Ownership

Eva Clayton, back left, President of the Nisga’a Lisims Government (joint venture owner of the proposed Ksi Lisims LNG project), Crystal Smith, back right, Haisla Nation Chief Councillor (joint venture owner of proposed Cedar LNG project), and Karen Ogen, front right, CEO of the First Nations LNG Alliance pose for a photograph on the HaiSea Wamis zero-emission tugboat outside the LNG2023 conference, in Vancouver, B.C., Monday, July 10, 2023. CP Images photo

The rising tide of Indigenous ownership in Canadian energy is likely to continue growing in 2024.  

From LNG terminals to oil and gas pipelines, natural gas-fired power plants and CCS projects to reduce emissions, more Indigenous communities are taking on a leadership role. 

Since 2022, more than 75 First Nations and Métis communities in Alberta and British Columbia have agreed to ownership stakes in energy projects including the Coastal GasLink pipeline and major oil sands transportation networks.   

Indigenous loan guarantee programs like those offered by the Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation (AIOC) are helping communities invest.  

So far, the AIOC has underwritten more than $500 million in loan guarantees. This year it has $3 billion of support available, up from $2 billion in 2023.  

Details of a proposed national loan guarantee program to help facilitate Indigenous equity ownership in major resource projects are also expected in the federal budget this spring.

2. Green Light for Cedar LNG 

Rendering courtesy Cedar LNG

Owners of the world’s first Indigenous-led LNG project – a floating terminal at Kitimat, B.C. –plan to make the final decision to proceed within the next three months.  

Cedar LNG, owned jointly by the Haisla Nation and Pembina Pipeline Corporation, would have capacity to export three million tonnes of LNG per year, primarily to Asian markets.  

With emissions intensity of 0.08 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per tonne of LNG, it would be one of the lowest carbon footprint LNG projects in the world.   

In early January, the partners reached the critical milestone of selecting the primary contractors to engineer, build and deliver the floating LNG unit.  

A final investment decision is now expected in the first quarter of 2024. 

1. Completion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion 

Worker at Trans Mountain’s Edmonton terminal. Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation

After more than 12 years in the making, Canada’s first large-scale access to growing global oil markets is now weeks away from completion. 

The existing Trans Mountain pipeline system from Edmonton, Alberta to Burnaby, B.C. runs consistently at maximum capacity with producers seeking more export space than is available.  

The expansion will increase service by about 600,000 barrels per day, bringing more Canadian oil to customers around the world, primarily on the U.S. west coast and Asia.  

After the recent resolution of a regulatory delay, Trans Mountain can now proceed with the last two per cent of construction.  

The company anticipates oil will flow on the expanded line before the end of March.  

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A group of Hollywood filmmakers including Mark Ruffalo, Joaquin Phoenix and Rachel McAdams is calling on the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) to drop RBC as its main sponsor. 

They say RBC is not a “worthy source of financing” for Canadian film because of its ongoing support for Canadian oil and gas. They claim RBC is fueling climate change and disrespecting Indigenous rights.  

They are wrong.  

RBC is helping fund climate solutions while enabling Indigenous self-determination and prosperity. And Indigenous communities do not want Hollywood to speak for them.  

Here are the facts.  

Fact: RBC primarily funds Canadian oil and gas, and the world needs more Canadian oil and gas – not less 

The world’s growing population needs access to reliable, affordable, responsibly produced energy. And a lot more of it.  

According to the United Nations, last November the global population reached 8 billion people, just over a decade after hitting the landmark 7 billion in 2011. Driven by India and China, the world’s population is projected to reach 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion 2050.  

All those people need energy. Many don’t even have it today, with about 775 million without access to electricity last year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).  

Even with accelerating investment in low carbon energy resources, the world’s consumption of oil, gas and coal is as high or higher than it has ever been, with both oil and coal demand reaching new records this year, the IEA reports.  

The agency projects the world’s total energy consumption – which increased by 15 per cent over the last decade – will increase by a further 24 per cent by 2050.  

On the world’s current trajectory, the IEA says oil, gas and coal will account for 62 per cent of world energy supply in 2050, compared to 78 per cent in 2021.  

As IEA executive director Fatih Birol said last year, “We will still need oil and gas for years to come… I prefer that oil is produced by countries like Canada who want to reduce the emissions of oil and gas.” 

Canada has been a cornerstone of global energy markets and a reliable partner for years, he said. 

Fact: Coastal GasLink will help reduce emissions  

The Hollywood activists take issue with RBC’s funding of the Coastal GasLink pipeline. This is nonsensical because the project can help reduce emissions in Asia. It also has the support of and is benefiting Indigenous communities.  

One of the fastest and most effective ways to reduce emissions is to switch from coal-fired power to power generated from natural gas, traded globally as LNG.  

Consider that between 2005 and 2019, emissions from the U.S power sector dropped by 32 per cent because of coal-to-gas switching, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.  

The LNG Canada project – supplied with Canadian natural gas via Coastal GasLink – will have among the world’s lowest emissions intensity, at 0.15 per cent CO2 per tonne compared to the global average of 0.35 per cent CO2 per tonne, according to Oxford Energy Institute.  

Natural gas from LNG Canada alone could reduce emissions in Asia by up to 90 million tonnes annually, or the equivalent of shutting down up to 60 Asian coal plants, the project says. That’s also a reduction of more than the entire emissions of the province of British Columbia, which were 64 million tonnes in 2022.   

Expanding Canada’s LNG exports to Asia could reduce emissions by 188 million tonnes per year, or the annual equivalent of taking all internal combustion engine vehicles off Canadian roads, according to a 2022 study by Wood Mackenzie.  

“It is a disservice to take the choice of Canadian LNG away from those that need it,” Billy Morin, former chief of the Enoch Cree Nation, said earlier this year. 

Fact: Coastal GasLink benefits Indigenous communities 

The Coastal GasLink pipeline is enabling shared prosperity between Indigenous communities and Canada’s energy industry.  

Not only will it connect to the LNG Canada terminal on the traditional lands of the Haisla Nation – where the project has been transformational for the community, according to Chief Councillor Crystal Smith – but it will also provide natural gas for the proposed Cedar LNG project, in which the Haisla Nation is 50 per cent owner. 

“Cedar is not only important from a Haisla perspective, [but from] a global perspective,” Smith says.  

“Our territory is not in a bubble and protected from what is happening in Asia and India with coal burning.” 

Sixteen First Nations will become 10 per cent owners of the Coastal GasLink pipeline itself once it is completed.  

And so far, LNG Canada and Coastal GasLink together have spent more than $5.7 billion with Indigenous-owned and local businesses.    

“When there is foreign interference, especially from high-profile celebrities like Ruffalo, it sets us back. He does not think beyond the pipeline. He does not think beyond the cause of the day,” Indigenous policy analyst Melissa Mbarki wrote following a previous attack on Coastal GasLink by the actor.   

“Over the long term, such actions serve to drive away investment and keep Indigenous communities in poverty. We are dealing with so many social issues, including high rates of suicide, incarceration and homelessness. Speaking on our behalf is not the answer if you fail to acknowledge the entire story.”    

Fact: Indigenous communities speak with their own voices 

Ruffalo is a prominent activist against the Coastal GasLink pipeline, often spreading misinformation about the project’s relationship with Indigenous communities. But they are fighting back.  

“Hollywood celebrities from outside of Canada are actively campaigning against the Coastal GasLink project, claiming Indigenous People do not support it. However, 20 elected First Nations governments along the route do support it,” the Indigenous Resource Network said in a statement last year.  

“Hollywood celebrities are standing in the way of us being able to make our own decisions. Their main goal is to push their agenda and use us as talking points; ultimately, communities are left to pick up the pieces. 

“Although their intentions may be to help Indigenous people in Canada, this can be best done by allowing our people to use their own voices. We are able to decide for ourselves what is best for ourselves and our communities.” 

Fact: The film industry has its own emissions to deal with 

Rather than campaign against Canadian energy projects that can help reduce emissions and foster prosperity for Indigenous communities, Hollywood film makers could be better served addressing the emissions in their own backyard.  

A 2020 study by the British Film Institute analyzing the emissions associated with producing movies in the U.S. and U.K. found that films with a budget of $70 million or over generate an average 2,840 tonnes of CO2 pollution. 

Air travel alone to support a movie production of this scale generates equivalent emissions of flying one way from London to New York 150 times, BFI said.  

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The United States continues its massive build out of LNG export capacity as a second major project looks to move to 24/7 construction.  

Meanwhile, analysts say Canada is a “dark horse” with an uncertain LNG future due to challenges getting projects built. 

“The outlook for LNG is bullish, with another 100 million tonnes per annum of capacity required to meet demand growth by the mid-2030s,” consultancy Wood Mackenzie said in a July research note. That’s about 25 per cent more LNG needed on top of projects already going ahead, analysts said.  

Global LNG trade hit a new record last year, driven in part by European nations buying up supplies to replace pipeline imports from Russia, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).  

The U.S. is expanding its LNG exports faster than anywhere else in the world – growing by 16 per cent in 2022 alone, the EIA reported.  

America’s seven operating terminals exported 76 million tonnes of LNG to global markets last year, according to with Wood Mackenzie. There are five new terminals under construction.  

One of them, Exxon Mobil’s US$10 billion Golden Pass LNG project on the Texas coast, received regulatory approval to increase its workforce by nearly 5,000 people and move construction to 24 hours a day, seven days week, to meet its target in-service date in the second half of 2024.  

Now Venture Global has asked FERC to allow it to also work 24/7 at the Plaquemines LNG project in Louisiana, increasing its workforce to 6,000 from 3,600 under the current approval. This will help it start exports by the end of 2024, the company said.  

Wood Mackenzie analysts report the U.S. and its main competitor, Qatar, are likely to see the most growth in LNG exports in the coming years. It is unclear how much Canada will fit in.  

“West Canada is a dark horse. The challenges for building out new capacity are clear. Construction costs are high in Canada, not least for new pipelines across the Rockies. Support from Canadian First Nations is critical to secure social licenses. But Canada also has much in its favour,” Wood Mackenzie said.  

This includes huge resources of “responsibly sourced gas,” or natural gas that has been certified by independent third parties as having a lower environmental footprint; multiple producers including Asian companies eager to sell LNG; lower cost of supply; and closer proximity to Asian markets than projects on the U.S. Gulf Coast.  

Canada is coming closer to entering the global LNG market. The first project, LNG Canada, is now 85 per cent complete and expected to start running in 2025. Smaller Woodfibre LNG is slated to start construction in September, and the Indigenous-led Cedar LNG project targets a go-ahead decision before winter. 

Removal of policy and regulatory impediments could see Canada become the world’s fifth-largest LNG exporter by 2035, according to CEC Research.  

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The world’s first Indigenous-owned LNG project could get the final green light to proceed by early fall, according to executives with Pembina Pipeline, the Haisla Nation’s industry partner.  

Under the current schedule, the Cedar LNG terminal near Kitimat, B.C. would start shipping Canadian natural gas to the world by early 2028. The owners plan to make the decision to go ahead within months.  

“Everything is full speed and we’re targeting the end of September,” Pembina senior vice-president Stuart Taylor told analysts on a recent investor call. 

There are still hurdles to get over like finalizing costs, securing full natural gas supply and raising financing, but the company is confident everything will come into place. A big part of that confidence is because of the involvement of the Haisla Nation, which owns 50 per cent of Cedar LNG.  

“The partnership with the Haisla Nation is just a real key aspect of the project strategically over so many work streams and it shows up in the financing side as well,” said Pembina chief financial officer Cameron Goldade. 

“People want to be involved with this and want to support this project.” 

Cedar is a small proposed electrified floating facility with capacity to export about three million tonnes of LNG per year, about 20 per cent the size of the LNG Canada terminal that is under construction.  

The project received provincial and federal approval this March, subject to more than 250 binding conditions including engagement with Indigenous peoples, marine protection, migratory birds, traditional land use, and greenhouse gas emissions.  

B.C’s environmental assessment office noted Cedar LNG would have among the world’s lowest emissions, at 0.08 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per tonne of LNG.  

The province requires the project to work toward “near zero” emissions by 2030, and under the federal approval it must reach net zero emissions by 2050.  

According to industry outlooks, world LNG demand is set to double to reach 700 million tonnes per year over the next two decades, helping meet rising energy demand in Asian economies and reducing reliance on coal.  

The fuel is now also a core energy supply source for Europe following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, analysts with Shell said earlier this year.  

Mainly destined for Asia, LNG shipped from B.C. could help divert other world shipments to Europe in a domino effect that helps the world, according to Wood Mackenzie.  

Pembina and the Haisla Nation are in the early stages of preparation for the startup of Cedar LNG within five years. 

The partners have entered an agreement with ARC Resources to provide half of the natural gas supply required to fill the plant. Pembina expects additional supply agreements before fall, Taylor said.  

A final cost estimate for construction – including building the floating LNG production and storage vessel at a shipyard in Asia – is expected this summer.  

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It’s massive, recognized to have low emissions, and has some of the most competitive energy economics in North America.  

The Montney play in northern B.C. and Alberta has become the driving force of Canada’s natural gas industry. It’s also the foundation of Canada’s emerging liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, and new deals signal it will continue to pick up steam.  

“This immense resource remains the primary focus of most Canadian gas producers,” RBN Energy analyst Martin King wrote recently, describing the Montney as having “inexhaustible energy.”  

The play has grown from next to no production in 2005 to just over half of all the natural gas produced in western Canada as of September 2022, he said. Growth is expected to continue in the years ahead given the play’s “gargantuan reserves and prolific wellhead productivity.” 

Canada’s natural gas powerhouse 

The Montney holds about half of Canada’s natural gas resources, according to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER). This year it is also expected to offer the highest investment payback of any natural gas play in North America, according to Rystad Energy. 

“Even during years of really bad natural gas volatility, particularly between 2017 and 2019, the Montney still performed on par with the U.S. gas plays, so those returns are quite resilient,” said Tom Liles, Rystad’s vice-president of upstream research.  

Driving the expected strong results in 2023 is the Montney’s presence of higher value “liquids” like condensate and pentanes-plus – used to dilute bitumen for pipeline transportation – in addition to dry natural gas, Liles said.  

Producers are also finding innovative ways to reach customers, including LNG contracts in the U.S. and Canada. 

Montney natural gas will feed west coast LNG projects including the LNG Canada terminal under construction and the Woodfibre LNG project that is expected to start building this year. And more activity is taking shape. 

Montney deals and LNG 

On Mar. 14, provincial and federal regulators issued approval to the Indigenous-led Cedar LNG project to proceed. At the same time, partners Haisla Nation and Pembina Pipeline announced a 20-year supply deal with Montney producer ARC Resources.  

On Mar. 28, long-time Saskatchewan operator Crescent Point Energy announced a $1.7 billion Montney acquisition giving it 600 drilling locations in the play, or enough to keep busy for the next 20 years.  

The CER projects Montney natural gas production will “grow significantly” through 2050, along with increases in Canada’s LNG exports, even under more aggressive climate policies. 

Driven by growing Asian economies looking to get off coal power, world LNG demand is projected to nearly double to reach 700 million tonnes per year by 2040.  

Reducing emissions 

Once Montney natural gas reaches terminals built on the B.C. coast, it has the potential to reduce world emissions to help fight climate change. 

According to Wood Mackenzie, LNG from Canada could reduce Asia’s net emissions by 188 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent per year through 2050 – or the annual impact of taking 41 million cars off the road.   

A smaller LNG footprint 

LNG projects on Canada’s west coast are expected to have emissions intensity that is less than half the global average.   

“Not all LNG is created equal,” researchers with the University of Calgary and University of Toronto wrote in 2021.  

They found the emissions intensity of the LNG Canada terminal to be lower than U.S. competitors. It’s a result of Canada’s colder climate, shorter shipping distances to Asia, the use of hydroelectric power, and success in methane emissions reduction.  

The findings affirmed a 2019 regulatory permit in Washington state requiring natural gas supply for the Tacoma LNG project to come from B.C. or Alberta.   

The Puget Sound Clean Air Authority found natural gas produced in western Canada to be cleaner than natural gas produced in the United States, stating that methane emissions in the U.S. “may be as much as five times higher than those from Canada.”   

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As the Haisla Nation waits for the B.C. government’s delayed decision on its proposed three million tonne per year (mtpa) Cedar LNG project, a new report says the U.S. is on its way to adding up to 190 mtpa of new LNG export capacity by 2030.  

Record prices and the need for energy security are driving “huge momentum” for U.S. LNG, according to analysts with Wood Mackenzie. New investment could reach over US$100 billion before the end of the decade.   

Meanwhile in Canada the Haisla Nation and its partner Pembina Pipeline Corporation are waiting to see if they can spend C$3 billion to go ahead with Cedar LNG.   

“Cedar LNG is at such a critical point with what’s happening globally in the energy sector,” Haisla Nation chief councillor Crystal Smith told CEC earlier this year. She said the delay is “frustrating to say the least.” 

The project could potentially become the third Canadian LNG export terminal to start up, assuming completion of LNG Canada phase one in 2025 and Woodfibre LNG in 2027. That would bring Canada’s total LNG export capacity to 19 mtpa.  

World LNG demand is expected to rise from 397 mtpa in 2022 to 400 mtpa in 2030, driven by growing Asian economies and the drive to reduce energy reliance on coal.  

B.C.’s Environmental Assessment Office completed its review of the Cedar LNG project application in November and referred it to the provincial and federal governments for a decision. It was supposed to come within 45 days, but that timeline has been extended with no deadline in sight.  

The First Nations LNG Alliance on Feb. 22 issued an open letter to B.C. Premier David Eby in response to rising concerns about the future of LNG in B.C.  

The letter was triggered by the “glaring lack of express commitment to LNG development” in the government’s February throne speech, together with long delays in regulatory decision-making, the alliance said. 

“For the first time in many generations, LNG development has provided immediate and medium-term opportunities to lift thousands of Indigenous people and our communities out of intergenerational poverty,” wrote CEO Karen Ogen.  

“We are already seeing benefits from employment, training, contracting, procurement, and benefits agreements which we anticipate will continue flowing from responsible resource development projects into the future.” 

The B.C. government’s hesitation on LNG is not shared by developers in the United States.   

In Texas and Louisiana, four new major projects are underway that will add 45 mtpa to U.S. LNG exports, according to Wood Mackenzie analysts.  

“The U.S. is already set to become the world’s largest exporter of LNG in 2023 – but it won’t stop there,” they wrote. 

“Our analysis indicates that if current momentum continues, between 70 mtpa and 190 mtpa could be added to U.S. LNG capacity before the end of the decade. That would more than double current exports.”  

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The world needs more liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects to meet rising demand as Europe emerges as a key import region, according to the latest industry outlook.  

Europe’s LNG imports increased by 60 per cent last year to replace pipeline gas from Russia, Shell reported this week. Analysts expect Europe’s LNG requirements to nearly double by 2030, reaching 140 million tonnes compared to about 73 million tonnes in 2021.  

“More investment in supply will be needed to meet future LNG demand,” Shell said in its LNG Outlook 2023.  

“Gas will be needed in the long term to balance energy systems as the world transitions to a lower-emission future.” 

Total world LNG demand reached 397 million tonnes in 2022, an increase of 16 million tonnes from 2021. France, the U.K., Netherlands, Spain, Belgium and Italy led growth in LNG imports. 

In a move Shell called “the power of effective policy making,” last year Europe was able to set up two new LNG import terminals in just six months. 

In Germany alone, six new floating LNG storage and regasification terminals are expected to come online by the end of 2023. Germany recently received its first ever LNG shipment from the Middle East, according to industry reports.  

The U.S., Norway, Malaysia, Qatar and Russia drove LNG supply growth in 2022, Shell said.  

The first LNG project to export Canada’s vast available quantities of natural gas is expected to start operating in 2025. Expansion of the LNG Canada project also has potential to proceed, with pipeline operator TC Energy recently reporting it has been asked to start evaluating Phase 2.  

Meanwhile, construction is expected to begin this year on the long-awaited smaller scale Woodfibre LNG project, with the first exports planned for 2027. The proposed Cedar LNG project, owned 50 per cent by the Haisla Nation, is awaiting a decision on whether it can proceed by provincial and federal regulators.  

“Cedar LNG is at a critical point with what’s happening globally in the energy sector,” Haisla chief councillor Crystal Smith told CEC earlier this year.  

While LNG from Canada’s west coast is expected to be mainly destined for Asia, it could help meet demand in Europe by diverting other world shipments, according to analysts with Wood Mackenzie.    

“More western Canadian LNG would allow a lot of the other sources to go to Europe. It’s like a domino,” said Matthias Bloennigen, Wood Mackenzie’s director of Americas consulting. 

Total world LNG demand is expected to reach 700 million tonnes by 2040, a more than 75 per cent increase from 2022, Shell said.  

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The Haisla Nation is growing anxious for a regulatory decision on its proposed $3-billion Cedar LNG project on the west coast of Canada at the Port of Kitimat.

If constructed, the floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility, in partnership with Pembina Pipeline, would be one of the largest industrial projects ever developed by an Indigenous community in Canada.

An approval decision from provincial and federal authorities was expected before the end of 2022.

“In regard to the approval of the environmental assessment, it has definitely been frustrating, to say the least,” said Haisla Nation Chief Councillor Crystal Smith during an interview at the B.C. Natural Resources Forum in January.

“Cedar LNG is at such a critical point with what’s happening globally in the energy sector.”

A spokesperson for the Government of British Columbia said the Cedar LNG project is still being reviewed.

“Under the 2002 Environmental Assessment Act, the 45-day deadline can be extended if ministers need additional time to review materials, to seek further information or to carry out additional consultation,” the province said in a statement to CEC.

The federal government is coordinating the timing of its decision with the Government of British Columbia, a spokesperson said.

Cedar LNG would produce approximately three million tonnes of LNG per year. By comparison, Phase 1 of the LNG Canada project, also in Kitimat, will produce 14 million tonnes.

Smith said there’s a huge need for Canadian LNG to offset coal-fired power generation in Asia.

World coal use rose to a new record in 2022, primarily driven by China and India, according to the International Energy Agency.

By replacing coal power in Asia, LNG from Canada could reduce emissions by the equivalent of taking all cars off Canada’s roads,  says Wood Mackenzie.

Cedar LNG would be of significant economic benefit to the Haisla Nation, the province, and the federal government, added Smith, chairperson of the First Nations LNG Alliance.

“Our territory is not in a bubble and protected from what is happening in Asia and India with coal burning,” she said. “Cedar is not only important from a Haisla perspective, [but from] a global perspective.”

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