Growing global demand for secure, reliable energy is creating a major opportunity for Canada, according to experts who say Asia’s growing needs underscore the case for more export capacity on the West Coast.

“I wish there were a few more Canadas in the world, so that we can have a much more reliable and sustainable global energy system,” the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s executive director Fatih Birol said during a recent trip to Canada.

Even before recent disruptions tied to conflict in the Middle East, the need for more Canadian energy in global markets was clear.

Growing shipments to Asia

The evidence can be seen in growing shipments from two newly completed pieces of export infrastructure: the Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion and the LNG Canada natural gas export terminal.

In April, LNG Canada reached a key ramp-up milestone with its first exports of one million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in a single month. Since start-up in June 2025, every shipment from the facility in Kitimat, B.C., has gone to Asia, led by South Korea, according to the Canada Energy Regulator.

Meanwhile, Trans Mountain reports that since May 2024, more than half of ocean exports from its expansion project have gone to Asia, primarily China and South Korea.

Demand growth for decades

But it’s just the tip of the iceberg, according to energy analysts and researchers who argue that rising global consumption — particularly in Asia — means Canada needs another oil pipeline to the Pacific coast, alongside new LNG export terminals under construction.

“The Pacific Basin is still underserved. Asia is the world’s biggest energy market, and Indian and Southeast Asian growth is just taking off,” said Heather Exner-Pirot, senior fellow and director of energy, natural resources and environment at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.  

That presents a major opportunity for both Canada’s natural gas and oil resources. 

Asian markets will continue to drive growth in oil and gas demand for decades, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects.

Asia’s need for both oil and natural gas

By 2050, natural gas demand in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to be nearly 60 per cent higher than it is today, according to the IEA’s latest outlook.

Meanwhile, regional oil demand is projected to grow by close to 20 per cent.

Globally, demand for extra-heavy oil and bitumen like what Canada produces is expected to rise by nearly 40 per cent over the next 25 years.

Many Asian refineries are configured to process heavier crude grades like those produced in Canada.

China, the world’s largest oil importer, alone represents enormous potential for export growth.

Mutually beneficial energy supply

The Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada (APF) argues that Canada is well positioned as China looks to diversify its suppliers and reduce reliance on Russia and the Middle East to feed its refineries and petrochemical sector.

In addition to being more politically stable than many global suppliers, Canada can ship oil and gas to Asia in about half the time it takes from the U.S. Gulf Coast through the Panama Canal.

“The result is mutually beneficial: Canada secures better revenues and greater market diversification while China gains a stable, low-cost oil supply,” wrote APF’s Xiaoting (Maya) Liu and Rachael Gurney.

A new oil pipeline from Alberta to the West Coast should be viewed as insurance, providing options in an uncertain world for both Canada and crude oil buyers, wrote Jackie Forrest, executive director of the ARC Energy Research Institute, in The Globe and Mail. 

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A new agreement between Alberta and Ottawa aims to address long-standing concerns about how major projects including oil sands, pipelines and carbon capture are reviewed.

It supports recently introduced provincial legislation to ensure approvals for qualified projects are completed within 120 days.

By reducing duplication without compromising environmental protection, the intent is to make Alberta projects more attractive to investors, says Brad Gilmour, partner in the Regulatory, Indigenous and Environmental Group of Osler’s Calgary office.

Here’s what Gilmour had to say about what the agreement means.

CEC: What is environmental assessment, and how does it apply to major projects?

BG: Environmental assessment is a process right at the beginning stages to gather information about a project and incorporate that into [regulatory] decision-making, but it’s not the end of the process in terms of protection of the environment. It is really the beginning. 

There has historically been a problem where we’ve got comprehensive environmental assessment legislation at the provincial level and at the federal level, and both statutes apply. You’re inevitably reviewing the same types of issues, and that creates significant inefficiencies and adds to delays, uncertainty and complexity of the process. 

The key is who really regulates these activities, generally, on a day-to-day basis. In so many cases, it’s the province, so that’s where the expertise is. We have expert regulatory authorities that oversee the life cycle of these activities, not merely at the environmental assessment stage.

The more the province and the federal government can work together to avoid duplication, create a higher degree of certainty and reduce timelines, the more that’s going to incentivize investors to look at doing projects in Alberta.

CEC: What kinds of projects does this agreement impact?

BG: It would include oil sands projects, electrical generation projects, things like carbon capture and storage projects and mining projects. 

It’s pretty much everything we do in the natural resources and energy sectors in Alberta, with the exception of things like pipelines that cross provincial boundaries or international boundaries, which are areas of federal jurisdiction. In those cases, the federal government will also cooperate with the province. 

CEC: What does this agreement change?

BG: Number one, it signals greater cooperation between the province and the federal government in terms of environmental assessment, which is ultimately a good thing. 

The regulation of environmental assessment between the two jurisdictions has been contentious over the last several years, including ongoing litigation with respect to the constitutionality of the Impact Assessment Act. 

Importantly, the agreement creates a single environmental assessment process. It follows that one-project, one-assessment model that both levels of government have been talking about. 

It makes Alberta the lead on environmental assessments for projects that are primarily regulated by the province. It places the responsibility primarily in the appropriate jurisdiction, and with the regulators that have the greatest degree of expertise over those activities. 

There are other provinces that have similar agreements with the federal government: Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Ontario, New Brunswick and British Columbia.

CEC: Does the agreement make environmental protection requirements more lenient?

BG: It doesn’t, in my view, do anything to take away from environmental protection. What it does is it focuses the environmental assessment process, avoids duplication, and lets the jurisdiction with the primary expertise lead the process.

For most of what we do in the energy and natural resources sector, the environmental effects are not a mystery, and often our environmental assessment processes treat them as if they are a mystery. But they’re well understood, as well as the means to mitigate them throughout the entire life cycle of the activity. 

CEC: Does the agreement change consultation with Indigenous communities?

BG: Both levels of government are very clear in the agreement that they will continue to be committed to meaningful participation of Indigenous groups in the assessment process and to respect their rights that are protected under Section 35 of the constitution. 

What it signals is a bit of a change that is consistent with the idea that the primary regulatory authority takes the lead. It recognizes that where a project is primarily regulated by the province, that the province is best placed to undertake the consultation with Indigenous peoples in relation to that activity. 

CEC: Does the agreement impact Alberta’s constitutional challenge of the federal Impact Assessment Act?

BG: It does not. In fact, the agreement specifically acknowledges that Alberta is challenging the constitutionality of the Impact Assessment Act and that the matter is before the courts. 

The province’s concern – that the federal government was overreaching in terms of its jurisdiction over environmental matters through the Impact Assessment Act – was validated in the October 2023 decision of the Supreme Court of Canada, and now the Act has been amended. 

That is now again being challenged by the province, being heard by the Alberta Court of Appeal. A decision in that regard is pending.

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Large-scale habitat restoration in Alberta is accelerating to support iconic caribou populations.

The focus is on legacy seismic lines — straight, flattened clearings cut through the boreal forest decades ago for oil and gas exploration, often up to eight metres wide to accommodate large equipment.

While today’s oil and gas operators no longer use these methods, the forest in many areas has struggled to regenerate on its own.

Now, it’s got some help. 

Revegetation of legacy seismic lines has increased by nearly 7,000 per cent since 2019, according to new data from Alberta Environment and Parks. 

More than 6,100 kilometres have been treated since the launch of Alberta’s Caribou Habitat Recovery Program, compared to just 87 kilometres between 2015 and 2019.  

“What’s been done in the past five years with the resources and exposure committed to recovering these disturbances is impressive progress,” said Jesse Tigner, a Pincher Creek, Alta.-based ecologist who has both researched and restored seismic lines through his company SwampDonkey Solutions.

The record pace is set to continue, with the province announcing agreements with two major energy companies to invest nearly $12 million in replanting legacy lines in caribou ranges where they operate.

Seismic lines and caribou

The first seismic survey in Alberta was carried out in 1929 to support development of the Turner Valley oilfield. 

For most of the 20th century, seismic lines in the province were cut with heavy machinery to make room for large equipment that uses energy waves to map oil and gas deposits beneath the surface. 

While many have not been used for decades, more than 200,000 kilometres of legacy seismic lines remain in Alberta’s caribou ranges.

Researchers have identified restoring these legacy lines as crucial to rebuilding habitat for the species.

That’s because the clearings have created pathways that make it easier for wolves to hunt caribou, which are considered threatened in Canada.

“Legacy lines allow wolves to move much further and faster than forests without lines,” Tigner said. 

Used since the 1990s,. low-impact seismic lines are smaller and recover more effectively on their own, according to a study co-authored by Tigner in the Canadian Journal of Forest Research.

Industry investment builds momentum

Since 2019, more than $90 million has been invested in assessing and restoring legacy seismic lines under Alberta’s Caribou Habitat Recovery Program, the province says.

New agreements with TC Energy and Syncrude will add nearly $12 million.

Pipeline operator TC Energy will invest $5 million to restore legacy seismic lines in the Little Smoky caribou range in west-central Alberta, while oil sands producer Syncrude has committed $6.95 million to restoration in the Richardson range in the province’s northeast.

Tigner, who has worked on restoring legacy lines in both British Columbia and Alberta, sees industry participation as important in addressing the issue.

“Some oil sands companies have driven the work and have done a phenomenal job of restoring lines,” he said. 

Oil sands-led projects drive restoration

The oil sands industry has invested in caribou habitat restoration for nearly two decades, said Kendall Dilling, president of the Oil Sands Alliance, which represents its five largest producers.

“Several projects led by industry have piloted the methods and techniques used to restore caribou habitat,” he said.

Examples include the Boreal Ecosystem Recovery and Assessment (BERA) project,  Cenovus Energy’s Caribou Habitat Restoration Project and the Algar Seismic Restoration Pilot Project.

The ongoing BERA project brings together researchers, industry and government to study how industrial activity affects the boreal forest and how to restore disturbed landscapes.

Cenovus Energy’s $32-million, 10-year program, launched in 2016, restores legacy seismic lines to help protect threatened woodland caribou near its oil sands operations. 

Recognized with an Alberta Emerald Award in 2024, the project has treated more than 100,000 hectares and planted 1.6 million trees, making it the largest of its kind globally.

Meanwhile, the Algar project, carried out between 2012 and 2015, restored seismic lines in caribou habitat southwest of Fort McMurray. 

After restoration, researchers used 73 camera traps to monitor how caribou and other wildlife responded.

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The Port of Vancouver has emerged as a lifeline for Asian oil refiners amid disruption of the vital shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, according to ATB Cormark Capital Markets.

Tankers calling at the port’s Westridge Marine Terminal now have access to an expanded, reliable supply of oil from Alberta, thanks to the Trans Mountain pipeline. 

Not only do these barrels have clear sailing to Asian ports, analysts say they’re just the type of oil Asian refiners are increasingly looking for. 

About half the oil flowing through the pipeline is considered “heavy,” one of the grades most affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure, ATB said.

“Canadian heavy oil could become a premium global asset,” managing director of institutional equity research Patrick O’Rourke wrote on Mar. 2.

SAGD oil sands project in northern Alberta. Photo courtesy Cenovus Energy

Stability in a volatile market

It’s a sentiment that was building before the new conflict in the Middle East.

“Beyond price, Canada offers something increasingly valuable — a large, stable and reliable supply of heavy crude,” Studio.Energy director of research Carmen Velasquez wrote in November. 

“At a time when geopolitical risk is reshaping energy trade flows…this reliability is becoming a strategic differentiator, not just a commercial one.” 

Why heavy oil matters

Exported mainly from Alberta’s oil sands, heavy oil is one of Canada’s biggest energy assets. 

Thick and gooey, it requires diluent for transportation and complex processing to produce gasoline, jet fuel and petrochemicals used in everyday items.

The large-scale petrochemical refineries in Asia that are driving oil demand growth can pair well with Alberta’s heavy oil, Velasquez said.

“In recent years, [China] has invested heavily in new mega-refineries and upgraded existing ones to handle heavier and more complex crude slates,” she said.

Zhejiang Petrochemical Complex in in Zhejiang, China. Photo courtesy Zhejiang Petroleum and Chemical Co.

Asia’s growing appetite

China is Asia’s “heavy oil hub,” RBC director of energy policy Shaz Merwat wrote in a November research note. 

“China is sharply pivoting into petrochemicals, aiming to take Japanese and Korean market share,” Merwat said. 

“India, too, is expected to see oil imports grow 1.5 million barrels per day by 2035 as both countries seek steady supplies of heavy and sour crude,” he said. 

“Today, that supply originates from the Middle East, Russia and Venezuela, creating an opening for a stable, Western entrant.”

Canadian barrels gaining a foothold

Canadian heavy oil has started building a footprint in Asia thanks to the Trans Mountain expansion and “re-exports” — Western Canadian barrels shipped from terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Both China and India have purchased Canadian oil from Trans Mountain since the expanded pipeline went into service in May 2024, the company reports.

Courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation

While China leads overseas sales from Trans Mountain, India is a regular buyer of U.S. Gulf Coast re-exports, according to RBN Energy.

Courtesy RBN Energy

Demand keeps climbing

“Besides ongoing efforts to expand the Chinese customer base, India and Southeast Asia are the most promising growth markets for Canadian crude,” Studio.Energy’s Velasquez said. 

“And this is no small opportunity.”

The International Energy Agency projects oil demand in the Asia-Pacific region will rise to 41 million barrels per day by 2050, up from 35 million barrels per day in 2024.

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