The coming year could mark a turning point for the expansion of Canada’s oil and gas sector as governments look to harness its resources to drive economic independence and prosperity.

Against a backdrop of steady drilling activity and continued production growth, new major export projects are expected to take significant steps forward. 

Here are five key developments to watch. 

5. Modest growth in drilling activity

Oil and gas drilling in central Alberta, fall 2025. Photo supplied to the Canadian Energy Centre

Oil and gas drilling in Western Canada is set for modest increases in 2026 amid flat oil price forecasts and softer natural gas prices, according to the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors (CAOEC).

CAOEC projects an average of 213 active drilling rigs, up from 201 in 2025. A total of 5,709 wells are expected to be drilled, an increase of just under three per cent.

This will be accompanied by an average of 458 active service rigs, up from 447 in 2025. 

The activity is expected to support 85,000 direct and indirect jobs over the year. 

“These aren’t abstract figures; they’re the heartbeat of Canada, the proof that our work isn’t just about extracting resources — it’s about giving Canadians a hopeful future,” said CAOEC CEO Mark Scholz.

4. New investment spurred by Alberta-Canada agreement

Oil sands workers in northern Alberta. Photo courtesy Pathways Alliance

The recent wide-ranging energy agreement between the Alberta and federal governments could unlock new investment in data centres, emissions-reduction technology and oil sands growth in 2026.

The deal is “formidable,” Edmonton-based Capital Power CEO Avik Dey told investors in December. 

“It allows us a pathway to building new natural gas-fired power generation in Alberta,” he said.

The company announced it is now negotiating an electricity supply agreement with an unnamed data centre developer in the province.

Policy think tank Clean Prosperity estimates the $130-per-tonne carbon credit price agreed to by Alberta and Ottawa could unlock more than $90 billion in low-carbon investment including carbon capture and storage (CCS).

And as details of Alberta’s proposed pipeline to the northwest coast become clearer, oil sands producers could begin dusting off expansion plans.

According to BMO Capital Markets, producers have already submitted project proposals with combined capacity of 4.1 million barrels per day — enough to more than double current oil sands production.

This total includes both approved projects and proposals that are currently on hold or delayed.

3. Data centres taking flight

Alberta’s goal of attracting $100 billion in data centre investment is expected to advance in 2026 as key policy measures take shape and new projects receive approval.

Interest is strong, with proposed data centres now requesting more than 20 gigawatts of power, according to the Alberta Electric System Operator. 

The province passed legislation in 2025 that encourages data centres to bring their own generation to support their connection to the power grid. This is designed to enhance reliability of the grid while accelerating the approval process for data centre projects.

In December, two European companies announced a $1.26 billion plan to build four new AI-ready data centres in Alberta. 

Portugal-based Technologies New Energy will supply 80 per cent of the power for the new data centres for Data District Inc., a division of Swiss asset management firm Alcral AG. 

“Alberta offers the energy resources, industrial base and investment momentum to support this growth,” TNE said in a statement.

Initial operations are targeted for 2026.

2. Go-ahead for Ksi Lisims LNG

Rendering of the proposed Ksi Lisims LNG project. Image courtesy Ksi Lisims LNG

An Indigenous-led floating LNG terminal on B.C.’s northern coast near Alaska is “not far off” from a final decision to proceed. 

That milestone is expected in 2026, spokeswoman Rebecca Scott said in November. 

Ksi Lisims (pronounced “s’lisims”) is a partnership between the Nisga’a Nation, a consortium of Canadian natural gas producers called Rockies LNG, and a subsidiary of Houston-based Western LNG. 

The 12-million-tonne-per-year project would help significantly expand Canada’s LNG export capacity, which is currently about 14 million tonnes per year. 

In November, Ksi Lisims was referred for fast-tracking by Canada’s new Major Projects Office (MPO). 

Start-up is targeted for 2029.   

1. Advancing a new northwest coast oil pipeline

Pipe in storage for the Trans Mountain expansion near Hope, B.C. in August 2019. CP Images photo

Alberta’s application to the MPO for a new oil pipeline to the northwest coast is expected by July 1, 2026. 

It’s a project that’s been designated in the national interest as a key measure to establish Canada as an energy superpower.

The pipeline application is expected to target a deep-water port for oil exports to Asian markets, while creating opportunities for Indigenous ownership. 

If a proposal is approved, the federal government has committed to enabling bitumen exports, including an “appropriate adjustment” of the tanker moratorium on B.C.’s north coast if necessary. 

The governments have also agreed to a maximum two-year timeframe for permitting and approvals.

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Billions of investment in new data centres is still expected in Alberta despite the province’s electric system operator placing a temporary limit on new large-load grid connections, said Carson Kearl, lead data centre analyst for Enverus Intelligence Research. 

Kearl cited NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang’s estimate from earlier this year that building a one-gigawatt data centre costs between US$60 billion and US$80 billion.

That implies the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO)’s 1.2 gigawatt temporary limit would still allow for up to C$130 billion of investment.  

“It’s got the potential to be extremely impactful to the Alberta power sector and economy,” Kearl said. 

Importantly, data centre operators can potentially get around the temporary limit by ‘bringing their own power’ rather than drawing electricity from the existing grid. 

In Alberta’s deregulated electricity market – the only one in Canada – large energy consumers like data centres can build the power supply they need by entering project agreements directly with electricity producers.

According to the AESO, there are 30 proposed data centre projects across the province.

The total requested power load for these projects is more than 16 gigawatts, roughly four gigawatts more than Alberta’s demand record in January 2024 during a severe cold snap. 

For comparison, Edmonton’s load is around 1.4 gigawatts, the AESO said.

“Alberta has never seen this level and volume of load connection requests,” CEO Aaron Engen said in a statement. 

“Because connecting all large loads seeking access would impair grid reliability, we established a limit that preserves system integrity while enabling timely data centre development in Alberta.”

As data centre projects come to the province, so do jobs and other economic benefits.

“You have all of the construction staff associated; electricians, engineers, plumbers, and HVAC people for all the cooling tech that are continuously working on a multi-year time horizon. In the construction phase there’s a lot of spend, and that is just generally good for the ecosystem,” said Kearl.

Investment in local power infrastructure also has long-term job implications for maintenance and upgrades, he said. 

“Alberta is a really exciting place when it comes to building data centers,” said Beacon AI CEO Josh Schertzer on a recent ARC Energy Ideas podcast. 

“It has really great access to natural gas, it does have some excess grid capacity that can be used in the short term, it’s got a great workforce, and it’s very business-friendly.” 

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Data centres – the industrial-scale technology complexes powering the world’s growing boom in artificial intelligence – require reliable, continuous energy. And a lot of it.

“Artificial Intelligence is the next big thing in energy, dominating discussions at all levels in companies, banks, investment funds and governments,” says Simon Flowers, chief analyst with energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that the power required globally by data centres could double in the next 18 months. It’s not surprising given a search query using AI consumes up to 10 times the energy as a regular search engine.

The IEA estimates more than 8,000 data centres now operate around the world, with about one-third located in the United States. About 300 centres operate in Canada.

It’s a growing opportunity in Alberta, where unlike anywhere else in the country, data centre operators can move more swiftly by “bringing their own power.”

In Alberta’s deregulated electricity market, large energy consumers like data centres can build the power supply they need by entering project agreements directly with electricity producers instead of relying solely on the power of the existing grid.

Between 2018 and 2023, data centres in Alberta generated approximately $1.3 billion in revenue, growing on average by about eight percent per year, lawyers with Calgary-based McMillan LLP wrote in July.

“Alberta has a long history of building complex, multi-billion-dollar infrastructure projects with success and AI data centres could be the next area of focus for this core competency,” McMillan’s Business Law Bulletin reported.

In recent years, companies such as Amazon and RBC have negotiated power purchase agreements for renewable energy to power local operations and data centres, while supporting the construction of some of the country’s largest renewable energy projects, McMillan noted.

While the majority of established data centres generally have clustered near telecommunications infrastructure, the next wave of projects is increasingly seeking sites with electricity infrastructure and availability of reliable power to keep their servers running.

The intermittent nature of wind and solar is challenging for growth in these projects, Rusty Braziel, executive chairman of Houston, Texas-based consultancy RBN Energy wrote in July

“These facilities need 24/7, super-reliable power, and there’s only one power generation fuel that has any hope of keeping up with the demand surge: natural gas,” Braziel said.

TC Energy chief operating officer Stan Chapman sees an opportunity for his company’s natural gas delivery in Canada and the United States.

“In Canada, there’s around 300 data centre operations today. We could see that load increasing by one to two gigawatts before the end of the decade,” Chapman said in a conference call with analysts on August 1.

“Never have I seen such strong prospects for North American natural gas demand growth,” CEO François Poirier added.

Alberta is Canada’s largest natural gas producer, and natural gas is the base of the province’s power grid, supplying about 60 percent of energy needs, followed by wind and solar at 27 percent.

“Given the heavy power requirements for AI data centres, developers will likely need to bring their own power to the table and some creative solutions will need to be considered in securing sufficient and reliable energy to fuel these projects,” McMillan’s law bulletin reported.

The Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO), which operates the province’s power grid, is working with at least six proposed data centre proposals, according to the latest public data.

“The companies that build and operate these centres have a long list of requirements, including reliable and affordable power, access to skilled labour and internet connectivity,” said Ryan Scholefield, the AESO’s manager of load forecasting and market analytics.

“The AESO is open for business and will work with any project that expresses an interest in coming to Alberta.”

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