The coming year could mark a turning point for the expansion of Canada’s oil and gas sector as governments look to harness its resources to drive economic independence and prosperity.

Against a backdrop of steady drilling activity and continued production growth, new major export projects are expected to take significant steps forward. 

Here are five key developments to watch. 

5. Modest growth in drilling activity

Oil and gas drilling in central Alberta, fall 2025. Photo supplied to the Canadian Energy Centre

Oil and gas drilling in Western Canada is set for modest increases in 2026 amid flat oil price forecasts and softer natural gas prices, according to the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors (CAOEC).

CAOEC projects an average of 213 active drilling rigs, up from 201 in 2025. A total of 5,709 wells are expected to be drilled, an increase of just under three per cent.

This will be accompanied by an average of 458 active service rigs, up from 447 in 2025. 

The activity is expected to support 85,000 direct and indirect jobs over the year. 

“These aren’t abstract figures; they’re the heartbeat of Canada, the proof that our work isn’t just about extracting resources — it’s about giving Canadians a hopeful future,” said CAOEC CEO Mark Scholz.

4. New investment spurred by Alberta-Canada agreement

Oil sands workers in northern Alberta. Photo courtesy Pathways Alliance

The recent wide-ranging energy agreement between the Alberta and federal governments could unlock new investment in data centres, emissions-reduction technology and oil sands growth in 2026.

The deal is “formidable,” Edmonton-based Capital Power CEO Avik Dey told investors in December. 

“It allows us a pathway to building new natural gas-fired power generation in Alberta,” he said.

The company announced it is now negotiating an electricity supply agreement with an unnamed data centre developer in the province.

Policy think tank Clean Prosperity estimates the $130-per-tonne carbon credit price agreed to by Alberta and Ottawa could unlock more than $90 billion in low-carbon investment including carbon capture and storage (CCS).

And as details of Alberta’s proposed pipeline to the northwest coast become clearer, oil sands producers could begin dusting off expansion plans.

According to BMO Capital Markets, producers have already submitted project proposals with combined capacity of 4.1 million barrels per day — enough to more than double current oil sands production.

This total includes both approved projects and proposals that are currently on hold or delayed.

3. Data centres taking flight

Alberta’s goal of attracting $100 billion in data centre investment is expected to advance in 2026 as key policy measures take shape and new projects receive approval.

Interest is strong, with proposed data centres now requesting more than 20 gigawatts of power, according to the Alberta Electric System Operator. 

The province passed legislation in 2025 that encourages data centres to bring their own generation to support their connection to the power grid. This is designed to enhance reliability of the grid while accelerating the approval process for data centre projects.

In December, two European companies announced a $1.26 billion plan to build four new AI-ready data centres in Alberta. 

Portugal-based Technologies New Energy will supply 80 per cent of the power for the new data centres for Data District Inc., a division of Swiss asset management firm Alcral AG. 

“Alberta offers the energy resources, industrial base and investment momentum to support this growth,” TNE said in a statement.

Initial operations are targeted for 2026.

2. Go-ahead for Ksi Lisims LNG

Rendering of the proposed Ksi Lisims LNG project. Image courtesy Ksi Lisims LNG

An Indigenous-led floating LNG terminal on B.C.’s northern coast near Alaska is “not far off” from a final decision to proceed. 

That milestone is expected in 2026, spokeswoman Rebecca Scott said in November. 

Ksi Lisims (pronounced “s’lisims”) is a partnership between the Nisga’a Nation, a consortium of Canadian natural gas producers called Rockies LNG, and a subsidiary of Houston-based Western LNG. 

The 12-million-tonne-per-year project would help significantly expand Canada’s LNG export capacity, which is currently about 14 million tonnes per year. 

In November, Ksi Lisims was referred for fast-tracking by Canada’s new Major Projects Office (MPO). 

Start-up is targeted for 2029.   

1. Advancing a new northwest coast oil pipeline

Pipe in storage for the Trans Mountain expansion near Hope, B.C. in August 2019. CP Images photo

Alberta’s application to the MPO for a new oil pipeline to the northwest coast is expected by July 1, 2026. 

It’s a project that’s been designated in the national interest as a key measure to establish Canada as an energy superpower.

The pipeline application is expected to target a deep-water port for oil exports to Asian markets, while creating opportunities for Indigenous ownership. 

If a proposal is approved, the federal government has committed to enabling bitumen exports, including an “appropriate adjustment” of the tanker moratorium on B.C.’s north coast if necessary. 

The governments have also agreed to a maximum two-year timeframe for permitting and approvals.

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Canada’s energy landscape changed significantly in 2025, with mounting U.S. economic pressures reinforcing the central role oil and gas can play in safeguarding the country’s independence.

Here are the Canadian Energy Centre’s top five most-viewed stories of the year.

5. Alberta’s massive oil and gas reserves keep growing – here’s why

The Northern Lights, aurora borealis, make an appearance over pumpjacks near Cremona, Alta., Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. CP Images photo

Analysis commissioned this spring by the Alberta Energy Regulator increased the province’s natural gas reserves by more than 400 per cent, bumping Canada into the global top 10.

Even with record production, Alberta’s oil reserves – already fourth in the world – also increased by seven billion barrels.

According to McDaniel & Associates, which conducted the report, these reserves are likely to become increasingly important as global demand continues to rise and there is limited production growth from other sources, including the United States.

4. Canada’s pipeline builders ready to get to work

Photo courtesy Coastal GasLink

Canada could be on the cusp of a “golden age” for building major energy projects, said Kevin O’Donnell, executive director of the Mississauga, Ont.-based Pipe Line Contractors Association of Canada.

That eagerness is shared by the Edmonton-based Progressive Contractors Association of Canada (PCA), which launched a “Let’s Get Building” advocacy campaign urging all Canadian politicians to focus on getting major projects built.

“The sooner these nation-building projects get underway, the sooner Canadians reap the rewards through new trading partnerships, good jobs and a more stable economy,” said PCA chief executive Paul de Jong. 

3. New Canadian oil and gas pipelines a $38 billion missed opportunity, says Montreal Economic Institute

Steel pipe in storage for the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion in 2022. Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation

In March, a report by the Montreal Economic Institute (MEI) underscored the economic opportunity of Canada building new pipeline export capacity.

MEI found that if the proposed Energy East and Gazoduq/GNL Quebec projects had been built, Canada would have been able to export $38 billion worth of oil and gas to non-U.S. destinations in 2024.

“We would be able to have more prosperity for Canada, more revenue for governments because they collect royalties that go to government programs,” said MEI senior policy analyst Gabriel Giguère. 

“I believe everybody’s winning with these kinds of infrastructure projects.”

2. Keyera ‘Canadianizes’ natural gas liquids with $5.15 billion acquisition

Keyera Corp.’s natural gas liquids facilities in Fort Saskatchewan, Alta. Photo courtesy Keyera Corp.

In June, Keyera Corp. announced a $5.15 billion deal to acquire the majority of Plains American Pipelines LLP’s Canadian natural gas liquids (NGL) business, creating a cross-Canada NGL corridor that includes a storage hub in Sarnia, Ontario. 

The acquisition will connect NGLs from the growing Montney and Duvernay plays in Alberta and B.C. to markets in central Canada and the eastern U.S. seaboard.

“Having a Canadian source for natural gas would be our preference,” said Sarnia mayor Mike Bradley. 

“We see Keyera’s acquisition as strengthening our region as an energy hub.” 

1. Explained: Why Canadian oil is so important to the United States

Enbridge’s Cheecham Terminal near Fort McMurray, Alberta is a key oil storage hub that moves light and heavy crude along the Enbridge network. Photo courtesy Enbridge

The United States has become the world’s largest oil producer, but its reliance on oil imports from Canada has never been higher.

Many refineries in the United States are specifically designed to process heavy oil, primarily in the U.S. Midwest and U.S. Gulf Coast.

According to the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission, the top five U.S. refineries running the most Alberta crude are:

• Marathon Petroleum, Robinson, Illinois (100% Alberta crude)
• Exxon Mobil, Joliet, Illinois (96% Alberta crude)
• CHS Inc., Laurel, Montana (95% Alberta crude)
• Phillips 66, Billings, Montana (92% Alberta crude)
• Citgo, Lemont, Illinois (78% Alberta crude)

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The Trans Mountain system continues its decades-long record of zero marine spills even as oil tanker traffic has surged more than 800 per cent since the pipeline’s expansion in May 2024.

The number of tankers calling at Trans Mountain’s Westridge Marine Terminal in the Port of Vancouver in one month now rivals the number that used to go through in one year. 

A global trend toward safer tanker operations

The Westridge Marine Terminal loaded its first oil tanker shipment on January 1, 1956.

Nearly 70 years and a major expansion later, Trans Mountain’s ongoing safe marine operations are part of a worldwide trend.

Global oil tanker traffic is up, yet marine spills are down, according to the International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation, a London, UK-based nonprofit that provides data and response support.

Transport Canada reports a 95 per cent drop in ship-source oil spills and spill volumes since the 1970s, driven by stronger ship design, improved response and better regulations.

Graph courtesy International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation

“Tankers are now designed much more safely. They are double-hulled and compartmentalized to mitigate spills,” said Mike Lowry, spokesperson for the Western Canada Marine Response Corporation (WCMRC). 

WCMRC: Ready to protect the West Coast

One of WCMRC’s new response vessels arrives in Barkley Sound. Photo courtesy Western Canada Marine Response Corporation

From eight marine bases including Vancouver and Prince Rupert, WCMRC stands at the ready to protect all 27,000 kilometres of Canada’s western coastline. 

Lowry sees the corporation as similar to firefighters — training to respond to an event they hope they never have to see. 

In September, it conducted a large-scale training exercise for a worst-case spill scenario. This included the KJ Gardner — Canada’s largest spill response vessel and a part of WCMRC’s fleet since 2024.

“It’s part of the work we do to make sure everybody is trained and prepared to use our assets just in case,” Lowry said. 

Expanding capacity for Trans Mountain

The K.J. Gardner is the largest-ever spill response vessel in Canada. Photo courtesy Western Canada Marine Response Corporation

WCMRC’s fleet and capabilities were doubled with a $170-million expansion to support the Trans Mountain project. 

Between 2012 and 2024, the company grew from 13 people and $12 million in assets to more than 200 people and $213 million in assets. 

“About 80 per cent of our employees are mariners who work as deckhands, captains and marine engineers on our vessels,” Lowry said. 

“Most of the incidents we respond to are small marine diesel spills — the last one was a fuel leak from a forest logging vessel near Nanaimo — so we have deployed our fleet in other ways.” 

Tanker safety starts with strong rules and local expertise

Tanker loading at the Westridge Marine Terminal in the Port of Vancouver. Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation

Speaking on the ARC Energy Ideas podcast, Trans Mountain CEO Mark Maki said tanker safety starts with strong regulations, including the use of local pilots to guide vessels into the harbour.

“On the Mississippi River, you have Mississippi River pilots because they know how the river behaves. Same thing would apply here in Vancouver Harbour. Tides are strong, so people who are familiar with the harbor and have years and decades of experience are making sure the ships go in and out safely,” Maki said. 

“A high standard is applied to any ship that calls, and our facility has to meet very strict requirements. And we have rejected ships, just said, ‘Nope, that one doesn’t fit the bill.’ A ship calling on our facilities is very, very carefully looked at.”

Working with communities to protect sensitive areas

Trans Mountain’s Westridge Marine Terminal at Burnaby, B.C. Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation

Beyond escorting ships and preparing for spills, WCMRC partners with coastal communities to map sensitive areas that need rapid protection including salmon streams, clam beds and culturally important sites like burial grounds.

“We want to empower communities and nations to be more prepared and involved,” Lowry said. 

“They can help us identify and protect the areas that they value or view as sensitive by working with our mapping people to identify those areas in advance. If we know where those are ahead of time, we can develop a protection strategy for them.”

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Canada’s long-awaited LNG sector is taking shape, with the first export terminal operating and construction well underway on two more major projects.

Here’s a look at recent company photos showing progress on LNG Canada, Woodfibre LNG and Cedar LNG, laying the groundwork for an industry that will strengthen Canada’s role in global natural gas markets.

LNG Canada

Canada’s first LNG export facility has been operating for nearly five months, with regular shipments sailing to Asia. 

According to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER), as of September 2025 the terminal had exported more than 38 billion cubic feet of natural gas, or about two days worth of Canada’s total natural gas production.

Woodfibre LNG

Construction is more than halfway complete on the Woodfibre LNG project near Squamish, B.C.

Designed to export the equivalent of about 280 million cubic feet of natural gas per day, Woodfibre remains on schedule to start up in 2027, according to Enbridge, which holds a 30 per cent stake in the project.

Cedar LNG

Construction is well underway on the Cedar LNG project, a partnership between the Haisla Nation and Pembina Pipeline Corporation.

Located near the LNG Canada terminal in Kitimat, the floating facility will have capacity to export the equivalent of about 400 million cubic feet of natural gas per day.

Pembina recently reported that Cedar LNG remains on track to begin operations in late 2028.

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A “weird and wonderful” drilling innovation in Alberta is helping producers tap more oil and gas at lower cost and with less environmental impact.

With names like fishbone, fan, comb-over and stingray, “multilateral” wells turn a single wellbore from the surface into multiple horizontal legs underground.

“They do look spectacular, and they are making quite a bit of money for small companies, so there’s a lot of interest from investors,” said Calin Dragoie, vice-president of geoscience with Calgary-based Chinook Consulting Services. 

Dragoie, who has extensively studied the use of multilateral wells, said the technology takes horizontal drilling — which itself revolutionized oil and gas production — to the next level.

“It’s something that was not invented in Canada, but was perfected here. And it’s something that I think in the next few years will be exported as a technology to other parts of the world,” he said. 

Dragoie’s research found that in 2015 less than 10 per cent of metres drilled in Western Canada came from multilateral wells. By last year, that share had climbed to nearly 60 per cent.  

Royalty incentives in Alberta have accelerated the trend, and Saskatchewan has introduced similar policy.

Multilaterals first emerged alongside horizontal drilling in the late 1990s and early 2000s, Dragoie said. But today’s multilaterals are longer, more complex and more productive.

The main play is in Alberta’s Marten Hills region, where producers are using multilaterals to produce shallow heavy oil. 

Today’s average multilateral has about 7.5 horizontal legs from a single surface location, up from four or six just a few years ago, Dragoie said. 

One record-setting well in Alberta drilled by Tamarack Valley Energy in 2023 features 11 legs stretching two miles each, for a total subsurface reach of 33 kilometres — the longest well in Canada.

By accessing large volumes of oil and gas from a single surface pad, multilaterals reduce land impact by a factor of five to ten compared to conventional wells, he said.

The designs save money by skipping casing strings and cement in each leg, and production is amplified as a result of increased reservoir contact.

Here are examples of multilateral well design. Images courtesy Chinook Consulting Services.

Parallel

Fishbone

Fan

Waffle

Stingray

Frankenwells

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In North Vancouver, Heather Taylor spends much of her time volunteering to tackle the challenges of affordability and food security.

It’s given her a front-row seat to how community needs and energy policy overlap — especially for women.

“Women tend to feel economic impacts first. They see the connection between what’s happening in the economy and their daily lives,” said Taylor, senior manager of social performance with Western LNG, a partner in the proposed Ksi Lisims project led by the Nisga’a Nation.

More than 80 per cent of engaged women nationwide believe expanding Canada’s energy sector would raise the country’s standard of living, according to a new report by Canada Powered by Women, where Taylor serves on the board.

The advocacy group defines “engaged” women as politically aware, economically literate, and invested in the country’s future, estimating there are about 6.7 million of them across Canada.

In a Leger survey conducted earlier this year, eighty-five per cent agreed Canada should build more pipelines to reduce dependence on the U.S.

“Women all across Canada generally hold very similar opinions on these issues and they feel strongly about it,” Taylor said. 

“I’m an Albertan but I moved to B.C. four years ago to work. I always thought people in B.C. think differently but these results show that’s incorrect.”

Building on the survey, Canada Powered by Women hosted workshops this spring in Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary, drawing more than 550 participants from across sectors.

The discussions echoed the survey’s findings, said CEO Tracey Bodnarchuk.

“We are seeing the highest levels of acceptance for Canadian energy since we began polling engaged women across the country about these issues in 2023,” she said. 

“This level of support reflects a sense of urgency and that we need to start moving forward.”

Canada Powered by Women CEO Tracey Bodnarchuk.

The poll results align with other surveys showing broad support for Canada’s energy sector among both men and women.

That includes an October Leger poll in which 72 per cent of Canadians said new pipelines are important to the country’s economic future.

Economic threats from U.S. President Donald Trump have added to the appeal of Canadian energy independence, Taylor said.

“These issues are very much at the forefront of Canadians’ minds,” she said. 

“Our research shows Canadian women care deeply about what’s happening in the economy, and how it affects their daily lives.”

The survey and workshops also revealed that even many engaged women aren’t aware of the extent of Canada’s pipeline constraints — including the fact there’s no east-west oil pipeline through the country — Taylor said.

“If engaged women don’t know, the larger public definitely won’t,” she said.

“Part of that may be because we live in an energy-secure country,” she added. 

“There are no real challenges when it comes to heating or cooling our homes. But it’s important for people to understand where their energy comes from — and how fragile that system can be, and how much policy shapes it.”

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In Alberta’s oil patch, some companies are going beyond their obligations to clean up inactive wells. 

Aspenleaf Energy operates in the historic Leduc oil field, where drilling and production peaked in the 1950s. 

In the last seven years, the privately-held company has spent more than $40 million on abandonment and reclamation, which it reports is significantly more than the minimum required by the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER). 

CEO Bryan Gould sees reclaiming the legacy assets as like paying down a debt. 

“To me, it’s not a giant bill for us to pay to accelerate the closure and it builds our reputation with the community, which then paves the way for investment and community support for the things we need to do,” he said. 

“It just makes business sense to us.”

Aspenleaf, which says it has decommissioned two-thirds of its inactive wells in the Leduc area, isn’t alone in going beyond the requirements.

Producers in Alberta exceeded the AER’s minimum closure spend in both years of available data since the program was introduced in 2022.

That year, the industry-wide closure spend requirement was set at $422 million, but producers spent more than $696 million, according to the AER.

In 2023, companies spent nearly $770 million against a requirement of $700 million.

Alberta’s number of inactive wells is trending downward. The AER’s most recent report shows about 76,000 inactive wells in the province, down from roughly 92,000 in 2021.

In the Leduc field, new development techniques will make future cleanup easier and less costly, Gould said.

That’s because horizontal drilling allows several wells, each up to seven kilometres long, to originate from the same surface site.

“Historically, Leduc would have been developed with many, many sites with single vertical wells,” Gould said.  

“This is why the remediation going back is so cumbersome. If you looked at it today, all that would have been centralized in one pad. 

“Going forward, the environmental footprint is dramatically reduced compared to what it was.”

During and immediately after a well abandonment for Aspenleaf Energy near Edmonton. Photos for the Canadian Energy Centre

Gould said horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing give the field better economics, extending the life of a mature asset.  

“We can drill more wells, we can recover more oil and we can pay higher royalties and higher taxes to the province,” he said. 

Aspenleaf has also drilled about 3,700 test holes to assess how much soil needs cleanup. The company plans a pilot project to demonstrate a method that would reduce the amount of digging and landfilling of old underground materials while ensuring the land is productive and viable for use.

Crew at work on a well abandonment for Aspenleaf Energy near Edmonton. Photo for the Canadian Energy Centre

“We did a lot of sampling, and for the most part what we can show is what was buried in the ground by previous operators historically has not moved anywhere over 70 years and has had no impact to waterways and topography with lush forestry and productive agriculture thriving directly above and adjacent to those sampled areas,” he said. 

At current rates of about 15,000 barrels per day, Aspenleaf sees a long runway of future production for the next decade or longer.  

Revitalizing the historic field while cleaning up legacy assets is key to the company’s strategy. 

“We believe we can extract more of the resource, which belongs to the people of Alberta,” Gould said. 

“We make money for our investors, and the people of the province are much further ahead.”

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To the naked eye, it looks about as exciting as baking soda or table salt. 

But to the scientists in the University of Calgary chemistry lab who have spent more than a decade working on it, this white powder is nothing short of amazing. 

That’s because the material they invented is garnering global attention as a new solution to help address climate change.

Known as Calgary Framework-20 (CALF-20 for short), it has “an exceptional capacity to absorb carbon dioxide” and was recognized in connection with the 2025 Nobel Prize in Chemistry.

A jar of CALF-20, a metal-organic framework (MOF) used in carbon capture. Photo courtesy UCalgary

“It’s basically a molecular sponge that can adsorb CO2 very efficiently,” said Dr. George Shimizu, a UCalgary chemistry professor who leads the research group that first developed CALF-20 in 2013.

The team has been refining its effectiveness ever since.

“CALF-20 is a very exciting compound to work on because it has been a great example of translating basic science into something that works to solve a problem in the real world,” Shimizu said.

Advancing CCS

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is not a new science in Alberta. Since 2015, operating projects in the province have removed 15 million tonnes of CO2 that would have otherwise been emitted to the atmosphere. 

Alberta has nearly 60 proposed facilities for new CCS networks including the Pathways oil sands project, according to the Regina-based International CCS Knowledge Centre. 

This year’s Nobel Prize in Chemistry went to three of Shimizu’s colleagues in Japan, Australia and the United States, for developing the earliest versions of materials like CALF-20 between 1989 and 2003.

Custom-built molecules

CALF-20 is in a class called metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) — custom-built molecules that are particularly good at capturing and storing specific substances. 

MOFs are leading to new technologies for harvesting water from air in the desert, storing toxic gases, and capturing CO2 from industrial exhaust or directly from the atmosphere. 

CALF-20 is one of the few MOF compounds that has advanced to commercial use.

“There has been so much discussion about all the possible uses of MOFs, but there has been a lot of hype versus reality, and CALF-20 is the first to be proven stable and effective enough to be used at an industrial scale,” Shimizu said.

It has been licensed to companies capturing carbon across a range of industries, with the raw material now being produced by the tonne by chemical giant BASF.

CO2 pipeline at the Quest CCS project near Edmonton, Alta. Photo courtesy Shell Canada

Carbon capture filter gigafactory

Svante Inc. has demonstrated its CALF-20-based carbon capture system at a cement plant in British Columbia.

The company recently opened a “gigafactory” in Burnaby equipped to manufacture enough carbon capture and removal filters for up to 10 million tonnes of CO2 annually, equivalent to the emissions of more than 2.3 million cars.

The filters are designed to trap CO2 directly from industrial emissions and the atmosphere, the company says. 

Svante chief operating officer Richard Laliberté called the Nobel committee’s recognition “a profound validation” for the entire field of carbon capture and removal. 

CALF-20 expansion

Meanwhile, one of Shimizu’s former PhD students helped launch a spinoff company, Existent Sorbents, to further expand the applications of CALF-20.

Existent is working with oil sands producers, a major steel factory and a U.S.-based firm capturing emissions from other point sources, said CEO Adrien Côté.

“The first users of CALF-20 are leaders who took the risk of introducing new technology to industries that are shrewd about their top and bottom lines,” Côté said.

“It has been a long journey, but we are at the point where CALF-20 has proven to be resilient and able to survive in harsh real-world conditions, and we are excited to bring this made-in-Canada innovation to the world.”

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Alberta’s oil sands sector is one of Canada’s most important industries — and also one of its most misunderstood.

Here are five common myths, and the facts behind them.

Myth: Oil sands emissions are unchecked

Steam generators at a SAGD oil sands production site in northern Alberta. Photo courtesy Cenovus Energy

Reality: Oil sands emissions are strictly regulated and monitored. Producers are making improvements through innovation and efficiency.

The sector’s average emissions per barrel – already on par with the average oil consumed in the United States, according to S&P Global – continue to go down. 

The province reports that oil sands emissions per barrel declined by 26 per cent per barrel from 2012 to 2023. At the same time, production increased by 96 per cent.

Analysts with S&P Global call this a “structural change” for the industry where production growth is beginning to rise faster than emissions growth.

The firm continues to anticipate a decrease in total oil sands emissions within the next few years. 

The Pathways Alliance — companies representing about 95 per cent of oil sands activity — aims to significantly cut emissions from production through a major carbon capture and storage (CCS) project and other innovations.

Myth: There is no demand for oil sands production

Expanded export capacity at the Trans Mountain Westridge Terminal. Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation

Reality: Demand for Canadian oil – which primarily comes from the oil sands – is strong and rising. 

Today, America imports more than 80 per cent more oil from Canada than it did in 2010, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

New global customers also now have access to Canadian oil thanks to the opening of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion in 2024. 

Exports to countries outside the U.S. increased by 180 per cent since the project went into service, reaching a record 525,000 barrels per day in July 2025, according to the Canada Energy Regulator. 

The world’s appetite for oil keeps growing — and it’s not stopping anytime soon.

According to the latest EIA projections, the world will consume about 120 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum liquids in 2050, up from about 104 million barrels per day today.

Myth: Oil sands projects cost too much

Heavy haulers at an oil sands mining operation in northern Alberta. Photo courtesy Suncor Energy

Reality: Operating oil sands projects deliver some of the lowest-cost oil in North America, according to Enverus Intelligence Research.  

Unlike U.S. shale plays, oil sands production is a long-life, low-decline “manufacturing” process without the treadmill of ongoing investment in new drilling, according to BMO Capital Markets.  

Vast oil sands reserves support mining projects with no drilling, and the standard SAGD drilling method involves about 60 per cent fewer wells than the average shale play, BMO says. 

After initial investment, Enverus says oil sands projects typically break even at less than US$50 per barrel WTI. 

Myth: Indigenous communities don’t support the oil sands 

Chief Greg Desjarlais of Frog Lake First Nation signs an agreement in September 2022 whereby 23 First Nations and Métis communities in Alberta acquired an 11.57 per cent ownership interest in seven Enbridge-operated oil sands pipelines for approximately $1 billion. Photo courtesy Enbridge

Reality: Indigenous communities play an important role in the oil sands sector through community agreements, business contracts and, increasingly, project equity ownership.  

Oil sands producers spent an average of $1.8 billion per year with 180 Indigenous-affiliated vendors between 2021 and 2023, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. 

Indigenous communities are now owners of key projects that support the oil sands, including Suncor Energy’s East Tank Farm (49 per cent owned by two communities); the Northern Courier pipeline system (14 per cent owned by eight communities); and the Athabasca Trunkline, seven operating Enbridge oil sands pipelines (~12 per cent owned by 23 communities). 

These partnerships strengthen Indigenous communities with long-term revenue, helping build economic reconciliation.

Myth: Oil sands development only benefits people in Alberta 

The Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) on Bay St. Getty Images photo

Reality: Oil sands development benefits Canadians across the country through reliable energy supply, jobs, taxes and government revenues that help pay for services like roads, schools and hospitals.  

The sector has contributed approximately $1 trillion to the Canadian economy over the past 25 years, according to analysis by the Macdonald-Laurier Institute (MLI). 

That reflects total direct spending — including capital investment, operating costs, taxes and royalties — not profits or dividends for shareholders.

More than 2,300 companies outside of Alberta have had direct business with the oilsands, including over 1,300 in Ontario and almost 600 in Quebec, MLI said. 

Energy products are by far Canada’s largest export, representing $196 billion, or about one-quarter of Canada’s total trade in 2024, according to Statistics Canada. 

Led by the oil sands, Canada’s energy sector directly or indirectly employs more than 445,000 people across the country, according to Natural Resources Canada. 

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In what the former Chief of the Fort McKay First Nation calls “a critical step in the right direction,” the Alberta government is moving to accelerate reclamation of more than 1.3 trillion litres of water stored in oil sands tailings ponds.

On Sept. 5, the province announced it will expedite setting standards that allow for “mine water” to be treated and released into the environment, building on the rules that are already in place for other mining operations across Canada.

“We cannot ignore this challenge, we need to keep working together to find practical and effective solutions that protect Indigenous rights, people and the environment,” said Chief Jim Boucher, a member of Alberta’s Oil Sands Mine Water Steering Committee.

That committee is behind a suite of nine recommendations that Alberta is putting into action to improve mine water management and tailings pond reclamation.

The Mining Association of Canada (MAC) says decades of research give the industry confidence that mine water can be safely treated and released once regulations are in place. 

But that will take the federal government moving faster too. 

Both the federal and provincial governments play a role in potential regulations for the treatment and release of oil sands mine water. 

“Alberta is proposing science-based parameters to ensure the safe return of treated water used in oil sands mining, just as other provincial governments do for their respective mining sectors,” MAC CEO Pierre Gratton said in a statement. 

“We are hopeful that this will accelerate the development of federal regulations – which we requested almost 15 years ago – to be similarly advanced.”

Gratton said setting standards for safe mine water release could unlock “significant investments” in oil sands reclamation and water treatment.

What are tailings ponds?

Tailings are a byproduct of mining operations around the world. 

Oil sands tailings ponds are engineered basins holding a mix of mine water, sand, silt, clay and residual bitumen generated during the extraction process. There are eight operating oil sands mines with tailings ponds in northern Alberta. 

Recycling water held in these basins helps operators reduce the amount of fresh water withdrawn from the Athabasca River.

In 2023, 79 per cent of the water used for oil sands mining was recycled, according to the Alberta Energy Regulator. 

What is oil sands mine water?

Oil sands mine water is water that comes into contact with the various stages of oil sands mining operations, including bitumen extraction and processing.

Tailings ponds in the oil sands also hold water from significant amounts of rain and snow collected in the decades since the first mines began operating.

While the oil sands mining sector has reduced the amount of fresh water it uses per barrel of oil produced by nearly one-third since 2013, the total volume of mine water in tailings storage has grown as production has increased. 

What’s in oil sands mine water? 

The constituents of oil sands mine water requiring treatment for safe release are both typical of water in other industrial processes and unique to the oil sands sector.

MAC says common materials are suspended solids like sand, silt and clay, as well as a range of metals. These can be treated by a wide range of proven technologies already in use in Canada and globally.

Unique to oil sands mine water are organic compounds such as naphthenic acids. According to MAC, operators have demonstrated and continue to invest in processes to treat these to levels safe for environmental release.

How does mine water impact reclamation? 

At the end of an oil sands mine’s life, operators must remove all infrastructure and restore the land to features of a self-sustaining boreal forest similar to what was there before.

Addressing the challenge of tailings ponds and the mine water stored in them is critical to the overall success of oil sands mining reclamation. 

Why is mine water release important?

MAC says the only way to remove mine water in tailings ponds is to treat it for safe release to the environment.

Strict regulations allow for this process across Canadian copper, nickel, gold, iron ore, and diamond mining operations. But it is prohibited in the oil sands.   

The safe release of treated oil sands mine water into the environment can reduce the need to store it, minimize further land disturbance and help reclamation happen faster. 

MAC says operators have shown they can treat mine water to safe release levels, using processes that include innovative technologies developed through Canada’s Oil Sands Innovation Alliance.

What is Alberta doing? 

Alberta has accepted the Oil Sands Mine Water Steering Committee’s nine recommendations aimed at speeding up solutions for safe mine water release. 

The province says the recommendations, developed with input from industry, technology providers, Indigenous communities and scientists, will now be evaluated to determine how they can be put into practice.

Read the full recommendations here. 

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